A Multi-Scenario Land Expansion Simulation Method from Ecosystem Services Perspective of Coastal Urban Agglomeration: A Case Study of GHM-GBA, China

Abstract

Balancing urban development and ecosystem conservation in the context of natural resource scarcity can provide scientific guidance for land use planning. We integrated research methods, such as ecosystem services (ES) assessment, coastal vulnerability assessment, multi-objective linear planning, and land use change simulation, to develop a new model framework for multi-scenario urban land expansion simulation based on ecosystem services. In relation to the land use scale and constraints, we simulated three types of scenarios in 2035, including a status quo continuity scenario (SCS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS), to explore the ideal land use optimization strategies to enhance ES and land use efficiency. The results indicated that the scale of construction land under the three scenarios grew, and arable land and grassland had the largest losses. The continued urban expansion in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area has already had a significant negative impact on ecosystem services and could result in a total ESV loss of USD 28.1 billion by 2035 if an economic-first development model is adopted. Based on the hotspots of urban construction land expansion in the ecological–economic priority game, we proposed a classification and optimization strategy for land use, including proactive restoration of damaged ecological spaces with high ESVs (Zhaoqing City and Huizhou City), optimization of green space quality and formation of ecological corridors (Guangzhou City, Shenzhen City, Hong Kong, and Macao), and implementation of natural resource conservation planning and spatial regulation in the urban–rural integration area (Foshan City and Dongguan City). This research framework scientifically allocates the “quality” of ecosystem values and “quantity” of natural resources and provides a reference for regional “bottom-up” territorial spatial planning.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land System Change in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area Based on a Cellular Automata–Markov Model

“…On the other hand, regional decision-making and policy formulation should pay more attention to high-quality and green development, giving appropriate priority to ecology improvement. Socio-economic growth, ecological needs, and food security should be comprehensively taken into account for policy formulation [103][104][105]. For instance, the increment of build-up land should be limited within a rational range to leave enough ecological and agricultural space.…”

The Impact of Industrial Agglomeration on Urban Land Green Use Efficiency and Its Spatio-Temporal Pattern: Evidence from 283 Cities in China

“…However, compared to DEA AHP, PCA and factor analysis can only be used to measure a single aspect of input or output, and cannot measure ULGUE from the land use system as a whole. Addressing the patterns, trends, and development of ULGUE over time and space, mainly at the scale of cities, there are Yellow River Basin [20], Yangtze River Economic Belt [21], 284 prefecture-level cities in China [22], etc. Regarding the mainly influencing factors of ULGUE, there are environmental regulations [23], regional integration [24], new urbanization [25], economic development level, urban land intensification, ecological environment, governmental behavior, and social development level [26], etc.…”