A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century

Likhvar, Victoria; Pascal, Mathilde; Markakis, K.; Colette, Augustin; Hauglustaine, Didier; Valari, Myrto; Klimont, Zbigniew; Médina, Sylvia; Kinney, Patrick L.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.02.002

Cited by 67 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…According to the World Health Organization (WHO) data, air pollution accounts for 800 000 deaths per year around the globe [13]. Likhvar et al have performed studies presenting future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales for the years 2030 and 2050 [14]. Kraków is located in the Vistula Valley in Southern Poland.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overall human mortality and morbidity due to exposure to air pollution

Samek

2016

Int J Occup Med Environ Health

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Objectives: Concentrations of particulate matter that contains particles with diameter ≤ 10 mm (PM 10 ) and diameter ≤ 2.5 mm (PM 2.5 ) as well as nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) have considerable impact on human mortality, especially in the cases when cardiovascular or respiratory causes are attributed. Additionally, they affect morbidity. An estimation of human mortality and morbidity due to the increased concentrations of PM 10 , PM 2.5 and NO 2 between the years 2005-2013 was performed for the city of Kraków, Poland. For this purpose the Air Quality Health Impact Assessment Tool (AirQ) software was successfully applied. Material and Methods: The Air Quality Health Impact Assessment Tool was used for the calculation of the total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality as well as hospital admissions related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Data on concentrations of PM 10 , PM 2.5 and NO 2 , which was obtained from the website of the Voivodeship Inspectorate for Environmental Protection (WIOS) in Kraków, was used in this study. Results: Total mortality due to exposure to PM 10 in 2005 was found to be 41 deaths per 100 000 and dropped to 30 deaths per 100 000 in 2013. Cardiovascular mortality was 2 times lower than the total mortality. However, hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases were more than an order of magnitude higher than the respiratory mortality. Conclusions: The calculated total mortality due to PM 2.5 was higher than that due to PM 10 . Air pollution was determined to have a significant effect on human health. The values obtained by the use of the AirQ software for the city of Kraków imply that exposure to polluted air can result in serious health problems.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overall human mortality and morbidity due to exposure to air pollution

Samek

2016

Int J Occup Med Environ Health

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“…Previous studies have estimated the present-day global burden of disease due to exposure to ambient ozone and/or PM 2.5 (e.g., Apte et al, 2015; Evans et al, 2013; Forouzanfar et al, 2015), with several studies estimating this burden using only output of global atmospheric models (Anenberg et al, 2010; Fang et al, 2013a; Lelieveld et al, 2013; Rao et al, 2012; Silva et al, 2013). However, few studies have evaluated how the global burden might change in future scenarios (Lelieveld et al, 2015; Likhvar et al, 2015; West et al, 2007). Other global studies have estimated future air pollution-related mortality as a by-product of analyses of other future changes, such as the effects of climate change or of climate change mitigation (e.g., Fang et al, 2013b; Selin et al, 2009; West et al, 2013), but do not focus on the range of plausible future mortality as their main purpose.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

et al. 2016

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Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths/year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382,000 (121,000 to 728,000) deaths/year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths/year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between −2.39 and −1.31 million deaths/year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths/year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths/year in 2100 for the four RCPs, due to the combined effect of decreases in PM2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concen...

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“…Therefore, while local emission mitigation has a stronger impact on background ozone levels, climate change affects more the ozone peaks (found at around 15:00 LT in Paris). This may be particularly interesting from a health impact assessment standpoint where the MD8hr indicator is typically implemented (Likhvar et al, 2015). Emission reduction policies appear to be more efficient for ozone abatement over the Stockholm region, with reductions reaching ∼ 11 and ∼ 13 µg m −3 for the mean and MD8hr respectively, indistinguishably for the city and the domainaveraged concentrations (Table 4).…”

Section: Local Air Quality At 2050 Due To Emission Reductionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions – case studies for Paris and Stockholm

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Ozone, PM 10 and PM 2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modelled at 4 and 1 km horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine-resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional-scale emission projections by comparing modelled pollutant concentrations between the fine-and coarse-scale simulations over the study areas. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g. the city of Stockholm) the bias related to coarse-scale projections may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modelling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily mean and maximum) is up to −5 % for Paris and −2 % for Stockholm city. The climate benefit on PM 2.5 and PM 10 in Paris is between −5 and −10 %, while for Stockholm we estimate mixed trends of up to 3 % depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15 % for daily mean and maximum ozone and 20 % for PM. Through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NO x emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily mean ozone by 2.5 % in Paris. Climate and not emission change appears to be the most influential factor for maximum ozone concentration over the city of Paris, which may be particularly interesting from a health impact perspective.

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A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century

Abstract: Multi-scale HIAs can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies and provide results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales.

Cited by 67 publications

References 51 publications

Overall human mortality and morbidity due to exposure to air pollution

Overall human mortality and morbidity due to exposure to air pollution

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions – case studies for Paris and Stockholm

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