A multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing malaria risk in northern South America

Abstract

BackgroundMalaria control in South America has vastly improved in the past decade, leading to a decrease in the malaria burden. Despite the progress, large parts of the continent continue to be at risk of malaria transmission, especially in northern South America. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America using multi-criteria decision analysis.MethodsThe risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America was assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis, in which expert opinions were taken on the key environmental and population risk factors.ResultsResults from our risk maps indicated areas of moderate-to-high risk along rivers in the Amazon basin, along the coasts of the Guianas, the Pacific coast of Colombia and northern Colombia, in parts of Peru and Bolivia and within the Brazilian Amazon. When validated with occurrence records for malaria, An. darlingi, An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari s.l., t-test results indicated that risk scores at occurrence locations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001) than a control group of geographically random points.ConclusionIn this study, we produced risk maps based on expert opinion on the spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure and malaria transmission. The findings provide information to the public health decision maker/policy makers to give additional attention to the spatial planning of effective vector control measures. Therefore, as the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, prioritizing areas for interventions by using spatially accurate, high-resolution (1 km or less) risk maps may guide targeted control and help reduce the disease burden in the region.

Simple visit behavior unifies complex Zika outbreaks

“…Also the trends shown in Fig. 2 A and B are potentially valid for other viruses and parasite-borne diseases [14] .…”

“…The visit-revisit mechanism also has highly counterintuitive policy implications − not just for Zika but also for future strain variants that are transmitted person-to-person via an infected mosquito in a similar way [14] . For example, Fig.…”

Mapeo geoepidemiológico en la nueva vigilancia de salud pública. El caso de la malaria en Chiapas, México, en 2002

“…Reconociendo la importancia de conocer el análisis del riesgo epidemiológico de enfermar de malaria [32][33][34] , se calculó la incidencia de malaria por municipios y ciudades. El cálculo de la incidencia permitió reconocer y visualizar la intensidad del riesgo de enfermar de malaria en los distintos municipios y ciudades.…”

Geospatial Analysis of Urban Land Use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic Fever Risk – A Review

“…In the northern South America, Alimi et al (2016) and Piovezan et al (2012) assessed the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure using multi-criteria decision analysis, just as Piovezan et al (2012) performed spatial evaluation of Culicidae (Diptera) larvae from different breeding sites in the São Paulo State municipality of Santa Bárbara d' Oeste.…”

“…For example, Lassa is limited to rural areas of West Africa where rats and mice carry the virus. Consequently, several literature (Stefani et al, 2013, Hahn et al, 2014, Li et al, 2016, Alimi et al, 2016, Ibekwe, 2012 have investigated land use/land cover classes and some Hemorrhagic diseases. Bulks of these studies were conducted in America, Asia and Australia with much emphasis on mosquito borne diseases such as dengue and malaria fevers.…”