A Modeling and Experiment Framework for the Emergency Management in AHC Transmission

Chen, Bin; Ge, Yong; Zhang, Laobing; Zhang, Yongzheng; Zhong, Ziming; Liu, Xiaocheng

doi:10.1155/2014/897532

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Therefore, controversy remains regarding the effectiveness of school closures. Limited research has been conducted regarding the comparative effectiveness of control measures for AHC [17], and the quantitative effectiveness of these measures remains unclear. A list of optimized control measures for AHC outbreaks is urgently needed to assist public health departments in China to develop policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic modelling of strategies for the control of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks in schools in Changsha, China (2004–2015)

et al. 2016

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Outbreaks of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) - a rapidly progressing and highly contagious infection - often occur in schools during summer and autumn. We used dynamic modelling to evaluate the efficacy of interventions to control AHC outbreaks in schools. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was built to simulate AHC outbreaks in Chinese schools, with isolation or school closure added into the model. We used outbreak data from the period 2004-2015 in our models to estimate the effective reproduction number and assess the efficacy of interventions. The median effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) of AHC outbreaks was 7·00 (range 1·77-25·87). The median effective reproduction number (controlled) of AHC outbreaks was 0·16 (range 0·00-2·28). Intervention efficacy is affected by the timing of isolation; earlier isolation is associated with a lower morbidity peak and smaller total attack rate (TAR). School closures were not effective; TARs were almost 100% and did not change even when different school closure durations were adopted. Isolation and school closure as a combined intervention strategy was used to simulate outbreak control, but the efficacy was the same as isolation alone. An isolation programme could be an effective primary intervention during AHC outbreaks in schools. However, school closure is not recommended.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic modelling of strategies for the control of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks in schools in Changsha, China (2004–2015)

et al. 2016

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“…Secondly, target codes are generated based on domain models, which also conform to the M&S specification. 30,31 Finally, component models are produced by compiling and linking. This process is implemented under the guidance of a generic code framework, and the components involved must contain the necessary information for interfacing with a parallel engine.…”

Section: The Domain-specific Modeling Environment In Phemmentioning

confidence: 99%

A meta-modeling framework in public health emergency management

Chen

Zhang

2017

SIMULATION

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Epidemic transmission is a common type of public health emergency that is difficult to forecast and often causes substantial harm. Artificial societal models provide a novel approach to the study of public health problems. However, public health emergency management (PHEM) always involves multidisciplinary and multi-hierarchical models that complicate the work of modeling. Models are also made more complex by the consideration of new requirements and interactions. Therefore, we propose a domain-specific methodology to guide the modeling process in PHEM. By analyzing domain characteristics and modeling requirements, a meta-modeling framework can be constructed, containing the basic elements with which to construct an artificial society to study epidemic transmission. In this paper, the designs of metamodels are discussed in detail, and domain models are implemented by code generation, which enables the support of large-scale, agent-based computational experiments on the KD-ACP platform. Case studies of Ebola are outlined, emergency scenarios are reconstructed based on pre-designed meta-models, and ''scenario-response'' experiments are presented. This study provides a valuable framework and methodology with which to study complex social problems in PHEM. The proposed method has been verified effectively and efficiently.

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“…Subsequently, domain-oriented computational experiments are supported by artificial Beijing, such as epidemic propagation [14], rumor spreading, and traffic evacuation. In the study of Ebola epidemic, it is necessary to expand the corresponding attributes of population and environment.…”

Section: Reconstruction and Optimization Of Artificial Beijingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Large Scale Machine Learning in an Artificial Society: Prediction of the Ebola Outbreak in Beijing

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2015

Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience

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Ebola virus disease (EVD) distinguishes its feature as high infectivity and mortality. Thus, it is urgent for governments to draw up emergency plans against Ebola. However, it is hard to predict the possible epidemic situations in practice. Luckily, in recent years, computational experiments based on artificial society appeared, providing a new approach to study the propagation of EVD and analyze the corresponding interventions. Therefore, the rationality of artificial society is the key to the accuracy and reliability of experiment results. Individuals' behaviors along with travel mode directly affect the propagation among individuals. Firstly, artificial Beijing is reconstructed based on geodemographics and machine learning is involved to optimize individuals' behaviors. Meanwhile, Ebola course model and propagation model are built, according to the parameters in West Africa. Subsequently, propagation mechanism of EVD is analyzed, epidemic scenario is predicted, and corresponding interventions are presented. Finally, by simulating the emergency responses of Chinese government, the conclusion is finally drawn that Ebola is impossible to outbreak in large scale in the city of Beijing.

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A Modeling and Experiment Framework for the Emergency Management in AHC Transmission

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

Dynamic modelling of strategies for the control of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks in schools in Changsha, China (2004–2015)

Dynamic modelling of strategies for the control of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks in schools in Changsha, China (2004–2015)

A meta-modeling framework in public health emergency management

The Large Scale Machine Learning in an Artificial Society: Prediction of the Ebola Outbreak in Beijing

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