A Model to Determine the Likely Age of an Adolescent’s First Drink of Alcohol

Kuperman, Samuel; Chan, Grace; Kramer, John; Wetherill, Leah; Bucholz, Kathleen K.; Dick, Danielle M.; Hesselbrock, Victor; Porjesz, Bernice; Rangaswamy, Madhavi; Schuckit, Marc A.

doi:10.1542/peds.2012-0880

Cited by 36 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Early SI might represent significant depressed mood which may also reduce the chance that individuals will interface with delinquent peer groups (potentially, due to peer rejection) who might have otherwise promoted substance use (Hussong et al, 2011). In fact, a prior study of these data show similar protective effects of a score assessing difficulties with family and peers on age of onset of alcohol use (Kuperman et al, 2013). This hypothesis is also supported by the stronger correlation between MDD and SI (r = 0.74) rather than SA (r = 0.52).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

Reciprocal relationships between substance use and disorders and suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in the Collaborative Study of the Genetics of Alcoholism

Agrawal

Tillman

Grucza

et al. 2017

Journal of Affective Disorders

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Background Substance use and misuse and suicidal thoughts and behaviors tend to co-occur. The purpose of this study was to examine whether (a) suicidal ideation and attempt are related to onset of alcohol, nicotine and cannabis use and dependence; (b) early use of alcohol, nicotine and cannabis is associated with onset of suicidal ideation and attempt; and (c) whether these associations persist while controlling for covariates, such as family history of alcohol problems, major depression and other internalizing and externalizing disorders. Methods The prospective cohort of the Collaborative Study of the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA; N=3,277) was used. Cross-sectional and discrete time logistic regression (i.e. survival) analyses examined associations between suicidal ideation and attempt and onset of alcohol, nicotine and cannabis use and dependence. Survival models also examined whether individual early substance use was related to onset of ideation and attempt. Results Ideation was related to 0.71 – 0.77 odds of onset of subsequent alcohol, nicotine and cannabis use. Attempt was associated with 1.44 – 1.61 odds of later alcohol, nicotine and cannabis dependence, even after accounting for covariates. Evidence for early substance use being related to subsequent onset of ideation or attempt was limited. Several sex and race differences emerged. Limitations The sample was ascertained for family history of alcoholism; not all participants had been followed up allowing for censored observations; reporting bias. Conclusion Suicide attempts are associated with increased likelihood of onset of substance dependence.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

Reciprocal relationships between substance use and disorders and suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in the Collaborative Study of the Genetics of Alcoholism

Agrawal

Tillman

Grucza

et al. 2017

Journal of Affective Disorders

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“…However, in a later study, this group did not replicate this relationship but did demonstrate an association between this SNP and the YSR externalizing score (Dick, Aliev, Latendresse, Hickman, et al, 2013). This potential relationship between disruptive behavior and rs279871 builds upon our previous work demonstrating significance for both the number of CD symptoms and the YSR externalizing score as predictors for the age of drinking initiation (Kuperman et al, 2013) and provides further support for using rs279871 to determine whether it improves our previous model.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 64%

“…From this pool, 3 variables – age at interview, number of DSM-IV non-drinking related conduct disorder symptoms (referred to as CD from this point), and the number of adult alcohol-dependent (AD) siblings – formed the most parsimonious model and explained 45% of the variance of age of first drink. Kuperman et al (2013) subsequently employed these variables along with two additional SSAGA variables (whether most of a subject's best friends drank, and if the subject smoked a cigarette before initiating drinking) and eight scale scores from the commonly used Achenbach Youth Self Report (Achenbach & Rescorla, 2001) to predict the onset of alcohol initiation in an independent sample of 820 adolescent COGA subjects (∼60% had not initiated drinking) utilizing the Cox proportional hazards models. Four of these Achenbach Youth Self Report (YSR) scales were hypothesized to be protective and decrease the risk for drinking initiation (positive qualities, activities competence, social competence, and school competence), and four were predicted to be harmful and increase the risk for alcohol initiation in this young cohort (externalizing, attentional, social problems, and internalizing scores).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A GABRA2 polymorphism improves a model for prediction of drinking initiation

Kuperman

Chan

Kramer

et al. 2017

Alcohol

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Background Survival analysis was used to explore the addition of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and covariates (sex, interview age, and ancestry) on a previously published model's ability to predict onset of drinking. A SNP variant of rs279871, in the chromosome 4 gene encoding gamma-aminobutyric acid receptor (GABRA2), was selected due to its associations with alcoholism in young adults and with behaviors that increased risk for early drinking. Methods A subsample of 674 adolescents (ages 14–17) participating in the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) was examined using a previously derived Cox proportional hazards model containing: 1) number of non-drinking related conduct disorder (CD) symptoms, 2) membership in a high-risk alcohol-dependent (AD) family, 3) most best friends drank (MBFD), 4) Achenbach Youth Self Report (YSR) externalizing score, and 5) YSR social problems score. The above covariates along with the SNP variant of GABRA2, rs279871, were added to this model. Five new prototype models were examined. The most parsimonious model was chosen based on likelihood ratio tests and model fit statistics. Results The final model contained four of the five original predictors (YSR social problems score was no longer significant and hence dropped from subsequent models), the three covariates, and a recessive GABRA2 rs279871 TT genotype (two copies of the high-risk allele containing thymine). The model indicated that adolescents with the high-risk TT genotype were more likely to begin drinking than those without this genotype. Conclusions The joint effect of the gene (rs279871 TT genotype) and environment (MBFD) on adolescent alcohol initiation is additive, but not interactive, after controlling for behavior problems (CD and YSR externalizing score). This suggests that the impact of the high-risk TT genotype on the onset of drinking is affected by controlling for peer drinking and does not include genotype-by-environment interactions.

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“…Finally, recent work modeling the factors most closely associated with alcohol use initiation indicated that, although FH and indicators of behavioral under-control were important, they did not constitute the entire set of pertinent variables. Of perhaps no surprise to persons working with adolescents was the fact that the most powerful variable was whether the best friends of these adolescents drank [12]. …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Executive functioning among young people in relation to alcohol use

Nixon¹

2013

Current Opinion in Psychiatry

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Purpose of review This article reviews recent findings regarding neurobehavioral factors which may be associated with risk for alcohol misuse, as well as those which may occur as a result of alcohol misuse during adolescence and emerging adulthood. Recent findings Current research extends previous findings by engaging multiple assessment methods and integrating behavioral and imaging technologies. These efforts reinforce previous findings regarding alcohol-related changes in macrostructure while demonstrating alterations in brain connectivity previously underappreciated. Longitudinal work now being reported suggests problem use during adolescence may be associated with persistent neurobehavioral aberrations. Summary For many years, little attention was directed to the neurobehavioral consequences of alcohol use across adolescence and emerging adulthood or to the neurobehavioral factors which might predispose youth to alcohol misuse. Recent work provides critical insights regarding the underpinnings of the deficits in executive function often observed in those at risk for alcohol dependence and those who develop alcohol use disorders. These studies suggest that, even when behavioral deficits are not evident, changes in brain connectivity and microstructure may be observed. Programmatic, longitudinal research must be conducted to determine the relevance of these alterations to use trajectories and long-term adaptation.

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A Model to Determine the Likely Age of an Adolescent’s First Drink of Alcohol

Abstract: Adding variables to those from our original study improved our ability to model the likely age of alcohol initiation. In addition to the SSAGA, the YSR appears to have utility as a research tool to predict the age of alcohol initiation.

Cited by 36 publications

References 22 publications

Reciprocal relationships between substance use and disorders and suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in the Collaborative Study of the Genetics of Alcoholism

Reciprocal relationships between substance use and disorders and suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in the Collaborative Study of the Genetics of Alcoholism

A GABRA2 polymorphism improves a model for prediction of drinking initiation

Executive functioning among young people in relation to alcohol use

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