A Model for the Spread of Bovine Tb in New Zealand Possum Populations

Barlow, N. D.

doi:10.2307/2404279

Cited by 43 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is a bacterial disease (Mycobacterium bovis) found in wildlife and livestock throughout much of the world, particularly in regions dominated by agriculture (Barlow, 1993;Schmitt et al, 1997). Impacts of TB on human health and agriculture have been devastating worldwide for centuries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors influencing farmers' concerns regarding bovine tuberculosis in wildlife and livestock around Riding Mountain National Park

Brook

McLachlan

2006

Journal of Environmental Management

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors influencing farmers' concerns regarding bovine tuberculosis in wildlife and livestock around Riding Mountain National Park

Brook

McLachlan

2006

Journal of Environmental Management

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“…In contrast to the debate over whether possums transmit Tb to livestock, there now appears little scientific opposition to possums being considered a maintenance host for M. bovis infection, and debate has centred on to how to best control or eradicate M. bovis infection from possum populations (Barlow, 1991a;Barlow, 1991 b;Barlow, 1993;Barlow, 1994;Barlow, 1996;Roberts, 1996;Roberts and Kao, 1998). Eradication of M. bovis infection from possum populations in some restricted areas is now considered a technically feasible objective within the proposed National Pest Management Strategy for Bovine Tuberculosis (Animal Health Board, 1995).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Eradication of M. bovis infection from possum populations in some restricted areas is now considered a technically feasible objective within the proposed National Pest Management Strategy for Bovine Tuberculosis (Animal Health Board, 1995). In the absence of immigration, the deterministic possum-Tb model of Barlow (Barlow, 1991 a;Barlow, 1991 b;Barlow, 1993) predicts that, on average, M. bovis infection will not persist (nor establish) in possum populations held below about 40% of the habitat's carrying capacity. Under this regime, the prevalence of M. bovis infection is predicted to decline as infected individuals are removed and contact among the residual population is decreased.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of sustained control of brushtail possums on levels ofMycobacteriumbovis infection in cattle and brushtail possum populations from Hohotaka, New Zealand

Caley¹,

Hickling²,

Cowan³

et al. 1999

New Zealand Veterinary Journal

102

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The results support the hypothesis that tuberculous possums transmit bovine tuberculosis to domestic cattle, and therefore that reducing the abundance of tuberculous possums reduces the incidence of Tb in cattle. If the level of possum culling is sufficient, it appears that M. bovis infection may be eradicated from possum populations. Better information on population density, rate of increase and annual culling rates would have been needed for a truly independent examination of the Barlow possum-Tb model.

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“…The generic structure of the models also has broad implications for the analysis of ecological systems in disturbed environments. To date, little attention has been given to the analysis of the effect of discontinuities in interacting populations (Barlow 1993;Hanski et al 1993;Shaw 1994;Briggs & Godfray 1996;Gubbins & Gilligan 1997). Most ecological and epidemiological models describe systems that allow continuous interactions between populations, yet discontinuities are an inherent property of many plant, microbial and invertebrate populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biological control in a disturbed environment

Gubbins

Gilligan

1997

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B

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Most ecological and epidemiological models describe systems with continuous uninterrupted interactions between populations. Many systems, though, have ecological disturbances, such as those associated with planting and harvesting of a seasonal crop. In this paper, we introduce host—parasite—hyperparasite systems as models of biological control in a disturbed environment, where the host—parasite interactions are discontinuous. One model is a parasite—hyperparasite system designed to capture the essence of biological control and the other is a host—parasite—hyperparasite system that incorporates many more features of the population dynamics. Two types of discontinuity are included in the models. One corresponds to a pulse of new parasites at harvest and the other reflects the discontinuous presence of the host due to planting and harvesting. Such discontinuities are characteristic of many ecosystems involving parasitism or other interactions with an annual host. The models are tested against data from an experiment investigating the persistent biological control of the fungal plant parasite of lettuce Sclerotinia minor by the fungal hyperparasite Sporidesmium sclerotivorum , over successive crops. Using a combination of mathematical analysis, model fitting and parameter estimation, the factors that contribute the observed persistence of the parasite are examined. Analytical results show that repeated planting and harvesting of the host allows the parasite to persist by maintaining a quantity of host tissue in the system on which the parasite can reproduce. When the host dynamics are not included explicitly in the model, we demonstrate that homogeneous mixing fails to predict the persistence of the parasite population, while incorporating spatial heterogeneity by allowing for heterogeneous mixing prevents fade–out. Including the host's dynamics lessens the effect of heterogeneous mixing on persistence, though the predicted values for the parasite population are closer to the observed values. An alternative hypothesis for persistence involving a stepped change in rates of infection is also tested and model fitting is used to show that changes in some environmental conditions may contribute to parasite persistence. The importance of disturbances and periodic forcing in models for interacting populations is discussed.

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A Model for the Spread of Bovine Tb in New Zealand Possum Populations

Cited by 43 publications

References 9 publications

Factors influencing farmers' concerns regarding bovine tuberculosis in wildlife and livestock around Riding Mountain National Park

Factors influencing farmers' concerns regarding bovine tuberculosis in wildlife and livestock around Riding Mountain National Park

Effects of sustained control of brushtail possums on levels ofMycobacteriumbovis infection in cattle and brushtail possum populations from Hohotaka, New Zealand

Biological control in a disturbed environment

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