A Model for Assessing the Quantitative Effects of Heterogeneous Affinity in Malaria Transmission along with Ivermectin Mass Administration

Abstract

Using an agent-based model of malaria, we present numerical evidence that in communities of individuals having an affinity varying within a broad range of values, disease transmission may increase up to 300%. Moreover, our findings provide new insight into how to combine different strategies for the prevention of malaria transmission. In particular, we uncover a relationship between the level of heterogeneity and the level of conventional and unconventional anti-malarial drug administration (ivermectin and gametocidal agents), which, when taken together, will define a control parameter, tuning between disease persistence and elimination. Finally, we also provide evidence that the entomological inoculation rate, as well as the product between parasite and sporozoite rates are both good indicators of malaria incidence in the presence of heterogeneity in disease transmission and may configure a possible improvement in that setting, upon classical standard measures such as the basic reproductive number.

Are Malaria Risk Factors Based on Gender? A Mixed-Methods Survey in an Urban Setting in Ghana

“…In addition, our study showed how gender, socioeconomic aspects, and cultural attitudes and beliefs could also play a role in the spread of malaria. Given this multifactorial scenario, several mathematical models have been proposed to tackle specific problems related to malaria transmission in a human community, and a promising impact on disease prevention strategy is provided by “agent-based models” [ 37 , 38 ].…”

Using the Hurst Exponent and Entropy Measures to Predict Effective Transmissibility in Empirical Series of Malaria Incidence

“…To combine results from empirical data with simulations from the agent model introduced and developed in previous works [3,4], we conduct a series of simulations at different levels of disease transmission efficiency. Human-to-mosquito (H-to-M) transmission was defined in terms of the fraction of human disease days with the presence of gametocytemia in blood circulation, henceforth represented as w h .…”

“…[3]. That model was also used as support for an additional study concerning the presence of heterogeneity in malaria transmission along with the use of ivermectin [4].…”

“…Gametocytes are the parasite forms which mediate transmission from humans to mosquitoes and, therefore, are also obvious targets in implementing preventive actions such as vaccine immunization or anti-malarial drugs. Submicroscopic gametocytemia detection is difficult and often not as precise as statistical data collection from e.g., malaria incidence varying heterogeneously from one community to another [3,4].…”