Using the Hurst Exponent and Entropy Measures to Predict Effective Transmissibility in Empirical Series of Malaria Incidence

Abstract

We analyze the empirical series of malaria incidence, using the concepts of autocorrelation, Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy with the aim of uncovering hidden variables in those series. From the simulations of an agent model for malaria spreading, we first derive models of the malaria incidence, the Hurst exponent and the entropy as functions of gametocytemia, measuring the infectious power of a mosquito to a human host. Second, upon estimating the values of three observables—incidence, Hurst exponent and entropy—from the data set of different malaria empirical series we predict a value of the gametocytemia for each observable. Finally, we show that the independent predictions show considerable consistency with only a few exceptions which are discussed in further detail.

Analisis Pola Harga Saham dengan Modifikasi Metode Eksponen Hurst dan Box Counting

“…Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan metode eksponen Hurst dinilai sangat sesuai dalam menentukan dimensi fraktal dari suatu data runtun waktu karena karakteristik data dapat dengan mudah diketahui melalui nilai eksponennya [1]. Prediksi gigitan nyamuk yang dapat menyebabkan penyakit malaria juga telah dilakukan dengan metode eksponen Hurst [15]. Selain metode eksponen Hurst, terdapat metode lain yang biasa digunakan untuk analisis dimensi fraktal yaitu metode box counting.…”