A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports

Abstract

Epidemics of novel or re-emerging infectious diseases have quickly spread globally via air travel, as highlighted by pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009 (pH1N1). Federal, state, and local public health responders must be able to plan for and respond to these events at aviation points of entry. The emergence of a novel influenza virus and its spread to the United States were simulated for February 2009 from 55 international metropolitan areas using three basic reproduction numbers (R(0)): 1.53, 1.70, and 1.90. Empirical data from the pH1N1 virus were used to validate our SEIR model. Time to entry to the U.S. during the early stages of a prototypical novel communicable disease was predicted based on the aviation network patterns and the epidemiology of the disease. For example, approximately 96% of origins (R(0) of 1.53) propagated a disease into the U.S. in under 75 days, 90% of these origins propagated a disease in under 50 days. An R(0) of 1.53 reproduced the pH1NI observations. The ability to anticipate the rate and location of disease introduction into the U.S. provides greater opportunity to plan responses based on the scenario as it is unfolding. This simulation tool can aid public health officials to assess risk and leverage resources efficiently.

Modelling the global spread of diseases: A review of current practice and capability

“…OAG is an air travel intelligence company which has a large network of air travel data, also available for purchase (OAG). [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,10,11,12,14,16,17,18,19,20,22,23,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,48,50,51,52,53…”

Predicting the Infectious Disease Spread using Floating Population Data in Seoul, South Korea

“…In this study, the values reported by the WHO and Korea's census data with respect to outbreak of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009 were applied to parameters. Additionally, the number of contactable individuals per patient, that is, 1.53 was obtained from the data on the outbreak of the 2009 influenza virus; this was adopted for reproduction value [14]. In cases of additional parameter values, 2 days were applied to latent incubation time, 0.95 to percentage of immunized agents, 0.9 to percentage of recovered agents, 0.14 to percentage of dead agents, 5 days to minimum time of dead agents, 14 days to maximum time to be recovered, and lastly, Korea census data were referred to for total population size.…”

“…The initial time of the infectious disease introduction to the country was based on the patterns of aerial network and dynamic characteristics of infectious disease. The infection rate and location where the disease was first observed were predicted [14].…”

The role of ethnicity and travel on Hepatitis A vaccination coverage and disease incidence in Arizona at the United States–Mexico Border

“…These can be large cities and hubs of international air travel, or more localized border areas with high rates of ground travel between nations. [2][3][4][5] Hepatitis A is no exception. Recent evidence suggests that hepatitis A cases in the United States are primarily exposed when traveling outside of the United States and Canada.…”