Modelling the global spread of diseases: A review of current practice and capability

Walters, Caroline E.; Meslé, Margaux Marie Isabelle; Hall, Ian

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.007

Cited by 102 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 84 publications

(142 reference statements)

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“…Since the accurate epidemic forecast is so critical, there are diverse methods reported in the literature to try to achieve this goal [8][9][10][11][12] . Among them, empirical functions, methods based on statistical inference and dynamical models (difference equations, ODEs and PDEs) are three major routines (see Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China

Yang

Zhang

Peng

et al. 2020

Preprint

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medRxiv preprintDuring the study of epidemics, one of the most significant and also challenging problems is to forecast the future trends, on which all follow-up actions of individuals and governments heavily rely. However, to pick out a reliable predictable model/method is far from simple, a rational evaluation of various possible choices is eagerly needed, especially under the severe threat of COVID-19 epidemics which is spreading worldwide right now.In this paper, based on the public COVID-19 data of seven provinces/cities in China reported during the spring of 2020, we make a systematical investigation on the forecast ability of eight widely used empirical functions, four statistical inference methods and five dynamical models widely used in the literature. We highlight the significance of a well balance between model complexity and accuracy, over-fitting and under-fitting, as well as model robustness and sensitivity. We further introduce the Akaike information criterion, root mean square errors and robustness index to quantify these three golden means and to evaluate various epidemic models/methods.Through extensive simulations, we find that the inflection point plays a crucial role in the choice of the size of dataset in forecasting. Before the inflection point, no model considered here could make a reliable prediction. We further notice the Logistic function steadily underestimate the final epidemic size, while the Gomertz's function makes an overestimation in all cases. Since the methods of sequential Bayesian and time-dependent reproduction number take the non-constant nature of the effective reproduction number with the progression of epidemics into consideration, we suggest to employ them especially in the late stage of an epidemic. The transition-like behavior of exponential growth method from underestimation to overestimation with respect to the inflection point might be useful for constructing a more reliable forecast.Towards the dynamical models based on ODEs, it is observed that the SEIR-QD and SEIR-PO models generally show a better performance than SIR, SEIR and SEIR-AHQ models on the COVID-19 epidemics, whose success could be attributed to the inclusion of self-protection and quarantine, and a proper trade-off between model complexity and fitting accuracy.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China

Yang

Zhang

Peng

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…There are different approaches to model a complex phenomenon like the outbreak of a new infectious disease. According to a review of 80 articles concerning modelling of global disease spread [11], three model types have been identified: agent-based, meta-population (or equation-based) and statistical.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model

Reno

Lenzi

Navarra

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of April 17, 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world's centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territoryspecific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.

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“…In a study considering airline network in the prediction of the spread of pandemics, rate and density of transmission have been detected with high accuracy [22]. Therefore, making predictions in early periods of pandemics using these modellings can be effective in rapidly taking necessary measures [23].…”

Section: Measures Trade and Travelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global surveillance, travel, and trade during a pandemic

Çetin¹,

Kara²

2020

Turk J Med Sci

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Pandemics have had very important consequences in human history. Lots of people lost their lives and countries have been intensively affected in terms of socioeconomic problems. Unfortunately, avoidance of pandemics and limiting the spread are still currently not always possible. Maybe the most important factor for this is the increasing frequency of traveling. Increasing airline traveling rate also increases the rate of spread. Global organizations like the World Health Organization and United Nations are trying to play a supreme role over the countries. Pandemics do not have borders; therefore, efforts should be given globally, definition of pandemic should be established as soon as possible, and protective measures should be shared with countries. If these are not done, severe health consequences and serious economic problems are inevitable.

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Modelling the global spread of diseases: A review of current practice and capability

Cited by 102 publications

References 84 publications

Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China

Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China

Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model

Global surveillance, travel, and trade during a pandemic

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