A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

Alberico, Ines; Lirer, L.; Petrosino, Paola; Scandone, Roberto

doi:10.1016/s0377-0273(02)00211-1

Cited by 69 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Alberico et al (2002) examine urban and population density as predictive variables for risk to and subsequent damage from PDCs. They do not examine how either specific buildings or building elements would be damaged, nor how specific casualties could result.…”

Section: Literature Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Residential building and occupant vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents in explosive eruptions

Spence

Kelman

Brown³

et al. 2007

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.A major hazard during the eruption of explosive volcanoes is the formation of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Casualties and physical building damage from PDCs are caused by the temperature, pressure, and particle load of the flow. This paper examines the vulnerability of buildings and occupants to the forces imposed by PDCs along with associated infiltration of PDC particle and gas mixtures into an intact building. New studies are presented of building and occupant vulnerability with respect to temperature, pressure, and ash concentration. Initial mitigation recommendations are provided.

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Section: Literature Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Residential building and occupant vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents in explosive eruptions

Spence

Kelman

Brown³

et al. 2007

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…In the literature it is possible to find several studies aimed at solving the PDC hazard mapping problem in the CF area. For instance, first hazard maps of the zones potentially affected in the future have been produced by relying on the distribution of invaded areas by PDC associated with some of the main past events or specific eruptive scales (Lirer et al, 2001;Alberico et al, 2002;Orsi et al, 2004). A quantitative hazard map was constructed by using a dynamic flow model, with variable eruptive scales and uniform vent opening probability in an area centered on the town of Pozzuoli (Rossano et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

et al. 2017

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This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modeled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of ∼25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e., including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.

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“…These factors may be estimated using historical data, current measurements, and predicted data. The assessment of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic ows is presented by Alberico et al [110]. Similar work is presented by Alberico et al [111] for analyzing explosive eruptions at Ischia Island.…”

Section: Volcanic Eruptionsmentioning

confidence: 74%

Current Efforts for Prediction and Assessment of Natural Disasters: Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanic eruptions, Hurricanes, Tornados, and Floods

2017

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Abstract. This article presents a state-of-the-art review of di erent methods, signal and image processing techniques, and statistical analyses used for prediction and assessment of natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, and oods. Application of the big data paradigm to the aforementioned natural disasters is also discussed. The research for increasingly more sophisticated computational models will continue to achieve more accurate predictions of various natural disasters.

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A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

Cited by 69 publications

References 18 publications

Residential building and occupant vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents in explosive eruptions

Residential building and occupant vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents in explosive eruptions

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

Current Efforts for Prediction and Assessment of Natural Disasters: Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanic eruptions, Hurricanes, Tornados, and Floods

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