A Methodology for Risk Analysis Based on Hybrid Bayesian Networks: Application to the Regasification System of Liquefied Natural Gas Onboard a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit

Abstract

This article presents an iterative six-step risk analysis methodology based on hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs). In typical risk analysis, systems are usually modeled as discrete and Boolean variables with constant failure rates via fault trees. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not possible to perform an efficient analysis using only discrete and Boolean variables. The approach put forward by the proposed methodology makes use of BNs and incorporates recent developments that facilitate the use of continuous variables whose values may have any probability distributions. Thus, this approach makes the methodology particularly useful in cases where the available data for quantification of hazardous events probabilities are scarce or nonexistent, there is dependence among events, or when nonbinary events are involved. The methodology is applied to the risk analysis of a regasification system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on board an FSRU (floating, storage, and regasification unit). LNG is becoming an important energy source option and the world's capacity to produce LNG is surging. Large reserves of natural gas exist worldwide, particularly in areas where the resources exceed the demand. Thus, this natural gas is liquefied for shipping and the storage and regasification process usually occurs at onshore plants. However, a new option for LNG storage and regasification has been proposed: the FSRU. As very few FSRUs have been put into operation, relevant failure data on FSRU systems are scarce. The results show the usefulness of the proposed methodology for cases where the risk analysis must be performed under considerable uncertainty.

Application of risk analysis in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector: An overview

“…Distribution of the papers utilizing conventional and dynamic risk analysis. Ballesio et al, 2009;Kolodziej et al, 2009;Spitzenberger, 2009) 1 (Yun et al, 2009) 2010 2 (Skramstad et al, 2010;Vinnem, 2010) 2 (Chin and Saetren, 2010;Montewka et al, 2010) 20112 (Nwaoha et al, 2011Tanabe and Miyake, 2011) 0 2012 6 (Keshavarz et al, 2012;Khalil et al, 2012;Li and Huang, 2012;Rathnayaka et al, 2012;Roldán et al, 2012;Souza et al, 2012) 0 2013 3 (Benyessaad et al, 2013;Chu et al, 2013;Nwaoha et al, 2013) 2 (Berle et al, 2013;6 (Aneziris et al, 2014Dan et al, 2014;Devkaran, 2014;Elsayed et al, 2014;Maschio, 2014a, 2014b) 3 (Martins et al, 2014;Melani et al, 2014;Noh et al, 2014) 2015 5 (Ahmed et al, 2015;Giardina and Morale, 2015;Hamedifar et al, 2015;Lee et al, 2015;Martinez and Lambert, 2015) 1 (Zhao et al, 2015) 2016 3 (Fu et al, 2016;Jewitt, 2016;Martins et al, 2016) 2 (Stavrou et al, 2016;Yeo et al, 2016…”

“…After critically scrutinizing the identified literature, our analysis resulted in 47 journal articles (Shindo et al, 2000;Kim et al, 2005;Ochiai et al, 2005;Ronza et al, 2006;Han et al, 2008;Vanem et al, 2008;Raj and Lemoff, 2009;Yun et al, 2009;Nwaoha et al, 2010;Vinnem, 2010;Nwaoha et al, 2011;Parihar et al, 2011;Tanabe and Miyake, 2011;Keshavarz et al, 2012;Khalil et al, 2012;Li and Huang, 2012;Rathnayaka et al, 2012;Berle et al, 2013;Chu et al, 2013;Nwaoha et al, 2013;Aneziris et al, 2014;Dan et al, 2014;Elsayed et al, 2014;Martins et al, 2014;Mcinerney et al, 2014;Noh et al, 2014;Vianello and Maschio, 2014a;Vianello and Maschio, 2014b;Ahmed et al, 2015;Giardina and Morale, 2015;Lee et al, 2015;Martinez and Lambert, 2015;Fu et al, 2016;Martins et al, 2016;Yeo et al, 2016;Ahn et al, 2017;Jeong et al, 2017;Renjith et al, 2018;Baalisampang et al, 2019;Badida et al, 2019;George et al, 2019;…”

“…Furthermore, DRA has been applied to several risk analysis case studies involving facilities such as Ethyl Benzene process plant (Meel and Seider, 2008), LNG importation terminals (Yun et al, 2009), LNG Jetty (Chin and Saetren, 2010), process safety alarm systems (Pariyani et al, 2012a(Pariyani et al, , 2012b, LNG transportation systems (Berle et al, 2013), regasification system (Martins et al, 2014), LNG fuel storage tanks (Noh et al, 2014), LNG carrier anchoring system (Zhao et al, 2015), loading arms for LNG (Stavrou et al, 2016), FLNG platform (Yeo et al, 2016), and natural gas regulating and metering station (Leoni et al, 2019).…”

“…Dan et al (2014) applied a quantitative risk assessment method to evaluate the risk of fire and explosion in an LNG-FPSO. Martins et al (2014) proposed a hybrid BN model to analyse the risk of LNG regasification system on board FSRU vessels. Yeo et al (2016) developed an approach employing BN to perform dynamic safety analysis for offloading process in FLNG platforms.…”

Quantitative risk assessment of a natural gas pipeline in an underground utility tunnel

“…The probability of each accident scenario can be calculated based on the failure probabilities of the safety measures. The BT diagram has been widely applied to risk analysis, safety management, and reliability assessment in the process industry [27][28][29][30][31].…”