Bayesian analysis of school bus accidents: a case study of China

Wu, Jiansong; Fang, Weipeng; Tong, Xing; Yuan, Shuaiqi; Guo, Weiqi

doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3491-9

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…However, real road traffic scenes are highly complex and diverse to cause higher-speed crashes of school buses, particularly in developing countries, such as China. 47 It is necessary to increase the peak acceleration of the crash pulse to obtain a higher-speed crash pulse of school buses. The specific procedures were as follows:…”

Section: Mixed Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal design of continuously inflated airbag for 12-year-old child occupants with various sitting postures

Hong

Liu

Ruhai

2023

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part D:

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Owing to the lively nature, children often use a variety of non-standard sitting postures when riding school buses. Current restraint systems in school buses and traditional airbags cannot effectively protect the child occupants with the non-standard sitting postures in frontal collisions. A prototype design of a new continuously inflated airbag is proposed to increase the safety of child occupants. The aim of this study is to determine the injury thresholds of 12-year-old children using the dimensional analysis method, and under the eight mixed conditions, to propose an optimal design of a continuously inflated airbag. First, a simulation model of the restraint system is developed and validated by the experimental test conducted according to ECE R80/GB24406. Then, a coupling model of the restraint system and continuously inflated airbag is built. Second, a standard and three non-standard sitting postures of 12-year-old child occupants and the two crash pulses of school buses are combined to form the eight mixed conditions. Finally, the main design parameters of the continuously inflated airbag are optimized using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III and entropy weight method. A continuously inflated airbag with the optimal configuration can significantly reduce the injuries to the 12-year-old child occupants. Under the original crash pulse, the optimized airbag can provide the best protections for the occupant head under the forward-leaning sitting posture and the occupant femurs under the slouched sitting posture, respectively. Under the higher-speed crash pulse, the protective effect on the occupant head under the standard sitting posture is better than that under the right-leaning sitting posture.

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Section: Mixed Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal design of continuously inflated airbag for 12-year-old child occupants with various sitting postures

Hong

Liu

Ruhai

2023

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part D:

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show abstract

“…Besides revealing the descriptive characteristics of crash occurrence, it is also important to find out the interplay between these crash attributes because they are not always independent of each other [44]. Understanding the interplay between the attributes supports data-driven policy-making [45], e.g., how the land-use pattern and road type are associated with a variety of crash causations and therefore, how to prevent them accordingly.…”

Section: Interplay Between the Attributes Using Bayesian Network Anal...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bayesian networks are a class of graphical models that have proven particularly useful in describing the associations between the variables [45][46][47]. Given the set of crash attributes X = {X 1 , X 2 , ..., X n }, n = 12, Bayesian networks form a concise representation of the probabilistic dependencies between them via a directed acyclic graph (DAG) [48].…”

Section: Interplay Between the Attributes Using Bayesian Network Anal...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Traffic Crash Characteristics in Shenzhen, China from 2014 to 2016

Liao

Guo

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Road traffic crashes cause fatalities and injuries of both drivers/passengers in vehicles and pedestrians outside, thus challenge public health especially in big cities in developing countries like China. Previous efforts mainly focus on a specific crash type or causation to examine the crash characteristics in China while lacking the characteristics of various crash types, factors, and the interplay between them. This study investigated the crash characteristics in Shenzhen, one of the biggest four cities in China, based on the police-reported crashes from 2014 to 2016. The descriptive characteristics were reported in detail with respect to each of the crash attributes. Based on the recorded crash locations, the land-use pattern was obtained as one of the attributes for each crash. Then, the relationship between the attributes in motor-vehicle-involved crashes was examined using the Bayesian network analysis. We revealed the distinct crash characteristics observed between the examined levels of each attribute, as well the interplay between the attributes. This study provides an insight into the crash characteristics in Shenzhen, which would help understand the driving behavior of Chinese drivers, identify the traffic safety problems, guide the research focuses on advanced driver assistance systems (ADASs) and traffic management countermeasures in China.

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“…BNs are able to combine probability theory and graph theory for uncertain event analysis and inference [13,14]. At present, a large number of studies have used BN models for risk analysis and casual factor identification [15][16][17][18]. For instance, Aliabadi et al [19] assessed the gas leakage risks of storage tanks by using a BN model, and the results show that human factors are the most critical influencing factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis of Laboratory Fire Accidents in Chinese Universities by Combining Association Rule Learning and Fuzzy Bayesian Networks

Yang

Yuan

et al. 2023

Fire

Self Cite

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Targeting the challenges in the risk analysis of laboratory fire accidents, particularly considering fire accidents in Chinese universities, an integrated approach is proposed with the combination of association rule learning, a Bayesian network (BN), and fuzzy set theory in this study. The proposed approach has the main advantages of deriving conditional probabilities of BN nodes based on historical accident data and association rules (ARs) and making good use of expert elicitation by using an augmented fuzzy set method. In the proposed approach, prior probabilities of the cause nodes are determined based on expert elicitation with the help of an augmented fuzzy set method. The augmented fuzzy set method enables the effective aggregation of expert opinions and helps to reduce subjective bias in expert elicitations. Additionally, an AR algorithm is applied to determine the probabilistic dependency between the BN nodes based on the historical accident data of Chinese universities and further derive conditional probability tables. Finally, the developed fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) model was employed to identify critical causal factors with respect to laboratory fire accidents in Chinese universities. The obtained results show that H4 (bad safety awareness), O1 (improper storage of hazardous chemicals), E1 (environment with hazardous materials), and M4 (inadequate safety checks) are the four most critical factors inducing laboratory fire accidents.

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Bayesian analysis of school bus accidents: a case study of China

Cited by 9 publications

References 26 publications

Optimal design of continuously inflated airbag for 12-year-old child occupants with various sitting postures

Optimal design of continuously inflated airbag for 12-year-old child occupants with various sitting postures

Traffic Crash Characteristics in Shenzhen, China from 2014 to 2016

Risk Analysis of Laboratory Fire Accidents in Chinese Universities by Combining Association Rule Learning and Fuzzy Bayesian Networks

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