A methodology for estimating the illicit consumption of cigarettes at the country level

Aziani, Alberto; Dugato, Marco; Meneghini, Cecilia

doi:10.1080/17440572.2020.1724786

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 49 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The consumption of illicit cigarettes in 57 countries located in Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia has been estimated for each year in the time span 2008-2017 (see the Supplementary material for the full list of these 57 countries). The estimation of illicit cigarette consumption relies on a methodology that combines information on legal registered production 2 -providing the overall number of cigarettes sold-and data from Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) 3 -providing evidence of the consumption of cigarettes in each country-previously developed and refined by KPMG (2018), and Aziani et al (2020). EPSs are an unobtrusive method with which to gather data on illicit cigarette consumption since they do not require the direct cooperation of smokers, thus avoiding the risk of being affected by under-reporting and social desirability biases (Webb et al 1966;Merriman 2010;Reuter and Majmundar 2015).…”

Section: Illicit Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The contraband of genuine factory-made cigarettes involves cigarettes intended for legal consumption either being diverted toward the black market of a different country-especially while 'in transit'-(i.e., large-scale smuggling) or smuggled by networks of loosely affiliated criminals from lower-tax to higher-tax regimes after being fully taxed (i.e., bootlegging) (Joossens et al 2000;Reuter and Majmundar 2015). The production of counterfeits has been observed in few of the 57 considered countries (Aziani and Dugato 2019), China being by far the largest producer of counterfeits in the world (Swami et al 2009;Shen et al 2010). Therefore, also the trafficking of these cigarettes has predominantly a transnational dimension, at least in the countries considered.…”

Section: Network Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Modeling the structure and dynamics of transnational illicit networks: an application to cigarette trafficking

2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Many illicit markets are transnational in nature: illicit products are consumed in a country different from the one in which they were produced. Therefore, reconstructing the trafficking network and estimating the size of cross-border illicit flows are crucial steps to gain better understanding of these crimes and to enforce actions aimed at countering them. In this respect, the present study outlines a methodology with which to map and size illicit flows and applies it in estimation of transnational cigarette trafficking flows. The proposed methodology traces each step in the paths followed by illicit cigarettes flowing from their origin to the final consumption country and then estimates the quantity of cigarettes moving between each pair of countries. It exploits data on consumption of illicit cigarettes in 57 countries located in Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa, together with data on seizure cases and geographical information for 158 countries worldwide. These data are combined by a function that assigns a likelihood value of illicit cigarettes being transported between any pair of countries. An algorithm is then implemented in order to identify the most likely paths from the origin to the destination country. By merging results for all the different combinations of origins and destinations, this study estimates the size of all cross-border illicit flows and reconstructs a dynamic transnational cigarette trafficking network for the period 2008–2017. The results highlight the multifaceted role of countries in the cigarette trafficking network, the emergence of identifiable cigarette trafficking routes, and the evolution over time of the structure of this transnational illicit network. Finally, the paper discusses how the methodology developed could be adapted to the study of other transnational crimes.

show abstract

Section: Illicit Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Network Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the structure and dynamics of transnational illicit networks: an application to cigarette trafficking

2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Research on illicit tobacco trade has generally focused on the prevalence of illicit tobacco products in specific markets, without focusing on the origins of contraband or trade patterns. While most of the empirical literature previously focused on cigarette smuggling into the major tobacco markets of the USA, the EU, the UK and Canada (Aziani et al, 2020(Aziani et al, , 2021Levin, 1986, 1992;Merriman et al, 2000;Nicholson et al, 2014;Schwartz and Zhang, 2016), more recently the geographic scope and focus of the empirical literature has expanded (Europol, 2017;Meneghini et al, 2020;Metlzer and Martin, 2015) Meneghini et al (2020) provide a very recent exception, applying network theory to redistribute the amount of illicit cigarettes consumed across identified paths in proportion to the estimated path-specific likelihood.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Gravity of Tobacco Smuggling. Predicting Bilateral Illicit Cigarette Flows From Aggregate Data

Damijan¹,

Kosevc²

2022

TIP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

nternational tobacco smuggling remains an important concern for governments, tobacco manufactur-ers and health experts alike. While often linked to other forms of illegal activities, it also directly impacts govern-ment tax and health policies. Knowledge of factors that contribute to illicit tobacco trade and the existence of smug-gling routes is strongly hampered by the lack of reliable data on bilateral flows of illicit tobacco. Therefore, recon-structing the trafficking routes and estimating the size of cross-border illicit flows are crucial steps for gaining bet-ter understanding of these crimes and enforcing actions aimed at countering them. This study is the first to use grav-ity estimation techniques to decompose aggregate illicit cig-arette inflows for which data are available into their bilat-eral components. Our approach is a simple and effective method that can serve as a complement to other methods of pinpointing international trafficking flows such as empty discarded pack data or network analysis to help in the fight against illicit tobacco flows. Policymakers, customs officials as well as law enforcement can employ the presented meth-ods as an additional tool in the fight against illicit trade. Keywords: bilateral illicit cigarette trade, gravity model, predictive estimation

show abstract

“…In this context of non-independence, many studies have proposed methodologies, using official data, to measure the size of the illicit tobacco market 5 . In this part of the literature, many results have been achieved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?

Cadahia¹,

Golpe²,

Álvarez³

et al. 2021

Tob. Induc. Dis.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

INTRODUCTION There is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that have indicated that the empty pack surveys (EPSs) ordered by TTCs overestimate the size of this trade. This study simultaneously analyzed whether the EPSs established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were accurate and measured anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values. METHODS To achieve the objectives of this study, provincial data on cigarette sales, prices and GDP per capita were used. These data were modeled with machine learning techniques that are widely used to detect anomalies in other areas. RESULTS The magnitude of the average anomaly in provinces where sales are higher than their expected values exceeds 40%, while the average anomaly in provinces where sales are lower than their expected values (as detected by the EPSs) is <15%. Furthermore, the results reveal that there is a clear geographical pattern to the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed. In addition, the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature, are slightly overestimated. Finally, some regions bordering other countries or that are highly influenced by tourism have observed sales that are higher than their expected values. CONCLUSIONS Cooperation between countries in their tobacco control policies can have better effects than policies developed based on information from a single country. The lack of control over the transactions of tourists and the inhabitants of bordering countries can cause important anomalies that distort the understanding of tobacco consumption that governments have based on official data.

show abstract

A methodology for estimating the illicit consumption of cigarettes at the country level

Cited by 6 publications

References 49 publications

Modeling the structure and dynamics of transnational illicit networks: an application to cigarette trafficking

Modeling the structure and dynamics of transnational illicit networks: an application to cigarette trafficking

The Gravity of Tobacco Smuggling. Predicting Bilateral Illicit Cigarette Flows From Aggregate Data

Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About