A Mathematical Model of Humanitarian Aid Agencies in Attritional Conflict Environments

Abstract

Tools from mathematical ecology in a combat model with humanitarian aid agencies Conflict models have a long history of taking inspiration from mathematical ecology. In “A mathematical model of humanitarian aid agencies in attritional conflict environments,” McLennan-Smith et al. seek to enrich counterinsurgency (COIN) warfare models to account for modern and future complexities by incorporating nontrophic effects and the functional response from mathematical ecology. The authors consider the application of these ideas in a COIN scenario in which a humanitarian aid agency is present in the conflict environment to support the local population. In this scenario, the aid agency plays the unwilling role of a “hospital shield” whereby it is forced to, or inadvertently, shield combatants or weapons. In contrast to the typical behavior seen in the classic Lanchester system, this model gives rise to limit cycles and bifurcations that the authors interpret through a warfighting application. Finally, through a case study, the authors highlight the importance of the agility of an intervention force in achieving victory when humanitarian aid agencies are present.

`Friend or foe’ and decision making initiative in complex conflict environments

“…Distributed decision-making coupled with engagement was explored in [43]. Another variation of three groups in conflict environments using non-trophic/symbiotic Lotka-Volterra generalisations, where the third group represented external (for example, humanitarian) agencies, was explored in [44][45][46]. In [47,48] the impact of influence and support from a host population, as the third party in the conflict, on engagement outcomes was analysed, and [5] explored the impact of recruitment policies on multi-party engagements.…”

“…As detailed in [60], the chosen resolution of a combat model, and its assumptions/limitations, can be used to inform its applicability. For instance, the presence of Lanchester recruitment terms in [5,45,46] enables such models in their full generality to be applicable over campaigns which include multiple engagements and requirements to replenish forces. The absence of recruitment terms in Eq (2) for each force means that the model in this work is relevant over a shorter time-frame.…”