`Friend or foe’ and decision making initiative in complex conflict environments

Abstract

We present a novel mathematical model of two adversarial forces in the vicinity of a non-combatant population in order to explore the impact of each force pursuing specific decision-making strategies. Each force has the opportunity to draw support by enabling the decision-making initiative of the population, in tension with maintaining tactical and organisational effectiveness over their adversary. Each dynamic model component of force, population and decision-making, is defined by the archetypal Lanchester, Lotka-Volterra and Kuramoto-Sakaguchi models, with feedback between each component adding heterogeneity. Developing a scheme where cultural factors determine decision-making strategies for each force, this work highlights the parametric and topological factors that influence favourable results in a non-linear system where physical outcomes are highly dependent on the non-physical and cognitive nature of each force’s intended strategy.