A maritime decision support system to assess risk in the presence of environmental uncertainties: the REP10 experiment

Grasso, Raffaele; Cococcioni, Marco; Mourre, Baptiste; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Rixen, M.

doi:10.1007/s10236-011-0512-6

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(61 reference statements)

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“…The third publication detailed the development of a decision support system for maritime operational planning (Grasso et al 2012). Grasso et al (2012) proved to be one of the most relevant literature sources for the project showing numerous examples of maps filled with color-coded data.…”

Section: Existing Uav Simulations and Related Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment System

Marfo¹,

Ehler²,

Fields³

et al. 2015

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Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank)2. REPORT DATE September 2015 This paper examines the need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy's decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral environments, near potentially hostile countries, based on the latest intelligence. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVEREDHuman-centered design principles help determine the needs of experienced battle commanders. These needs form the basis of requirements and functional analysis. The system design concept consists of several parts: discrete-event simulation of UAV swarm attacks using ExtendSim, statistical analysis of the simulation data using Minitab, and a graphical user interface (GUI) that evolved as a web-app prototype written in MATLAB.Data from the simulation is analyzed and used to generate equations that calculate the effect of critical factors: physical environment, number of UAVs, distance from land, and the ship's defensive weapons. The GUI uses these equations to provide users with the capability to vary those critical factors and analyze different courses of action and risk. The physical GUI web-app can be used as-is, tailored or expanded. The paper concludes with an analysis of the actual GUI prototype built for UAV swarm risk assessment and how it meets user needs.14. SUBJECT TERMS unmanned aerial vehicle, littoral environment, area of responsibility, counter UAV, risk assessment, graphical user interphase, GUI, decision makers, assessing risk, intelligence, physical constrained environments, ships maneuverability, swarm attack, gap, assess risk, interactive. NUMBER OF PAGES ABSTRACTThis paper examines the need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy's decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral environments, near potentially hostile countries, based on the latest intelligence.Human-centered design principles help determine the needs of experienced battle commanders. These needs form the basis of requirements and functional analysis. The system design concept consists of several parts: discrete-event simulation of UAV swarm attacks using ExtendSim, statistical analysis of the simulation data using Minitab, and a graphical user interface (GUI) that evolved as a web-app prototype written in MATLAB.Data from the simulation is analyzed and used to genera...

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Section: Existing Uav Simulations and Related Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Grasso et al (2012) proved to be one of the most relevant literature sources for the project showing numerous examples of maps filled with color-coded data. Especially of interest was their implementation of perceptual redundancy using a color map background to augment a vector field map overlay.…”

Section: Existing Uav Simulations and Related Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment System

Marfo¹,

Ehler²,

Fields³

et al. 2015

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show abstract

“…It also considered future uncertainties, such as: the impact of climate change, multiple futures, environmental challenges in the High North, extreme climates, and events. Grasso et al (2012) present a decision support system (DSS) for planning maritime operations. Multiple environmental parameters and their uncertainties are input into the DSS.…”

Section: Understand: Understand Process Level and Transfers Of Uncertmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying, predicting, and exploiting uncertainties in marine environments

2012

Self Cite

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“…Weather effects Grasso, Cococcioni [12]; and Jedrasik, Cieslikiewicz [13]. Operational analysis Naval ship operations, Jaiswal [14]; Morse and Kimball [15]; and NATO [16] damage assessment Vaitekunas and Kim [8].…”

Section: Research Field Influence Types Example Of Referencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment

Liwång

2015

Marine Structures

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Survivability of an Ocean Patrol Vessels -Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment. Survivability of an Ocean Patrol Vessel -Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment AbstractMilitary Ocean Patrol Vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships. The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control-options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences. The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis. The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process. Keywords: risk control options; ocean patrol vessel; survivability; uncertainty analysis; influence diagram IntroductionThe risk control options for achieving security and survivability for naval ships are aspects that are often connected to central aspects of the ship design, such as damage stability and system redundancy. When the basic design is set, the possibility of changing the ship's survivability is limited. Therefore, there is a need to assess the level of survivability at early stages of the ship design to provide input to the decision process regarding risk control options. Such an assessment is especially challenging when the threats envisioned are new and the survivability design of older ships is not a relevant benchmark. This work presents a framework for decision analyses where both the operational risk and the uncertainty of the assessment are studied.Comprehensive studies on ship security risk analysis are rare [1,2], and the systematic handling of the uncertainties needed to create rational input for the decision-making process is even rarer. There is a need for a deeper understanding of ship security analysis and how ship security analysis can incorporate uncertainties as an important part of the risk picture. In a study of risk analysis for a piracy case, Liwång and Ringsberg [2] document expert uncertainty and how it can be reduced in relatio...

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A maritime decision support system to assess risk in the presence of environmental uncertainties: the REP10 experiment

Cited by 12 publications

References 46 publications

UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment System

UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment System

Quantifying, predicting, and exploiting uncertainties in marine environments

Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment

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