A Long-Term Trend Study of Tuberculosis Incidence in China, India and United States 1992–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Cui, Yiran; Shên, Hui; Wang, Fang; Wen, Haoyu; Zeng, Zixin; Wang, Yafeng; Yu, Chuanhua

doi:10.3390/ijerph17093334

Cited by 32 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 52 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The RRs of these two age groups were nearly the same (RR = 2.0). From a wider perspective, young adults (15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29)(30)(31)(32)(33)(34) and the elderly (50-84) were TB notification risk populations in mainland China. Unlike the bimodal distribution of the TB notification risk, the TB mortality risk increased monotonically with age and sharply increased from the age of 50.…”

Section: Age Period and Cohort Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Wang

2021

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.

show abstract

Section: Age Period and Cohort Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Wang

2021

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Previous studies revealed that age is a vital factor of TB incidence, and ageing may lead to a continuous increase in the risk of TB [ 15 ]. Gender is considered to be another factor implicated in TB incidence, and TB is more common in males than females [ 16 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Associations of genetic variants at TAP1 and TAP2 with pulmonary tuberculosis risk among the Chinese population

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tuberculosis (TB) is a common infectious disease, and the present study aims to explore the associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at rs1135216 and rs1057141 of transporter-associated antigen processing (TAP1) and rs2228396 of TAP2 with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) risk. A case–control study including 168 smear-positive PTB cases and 251 controls was conducted. Genotyping of the SNPs at rs1135216, rs1057141 and rs2228396 was performed, and their associations with PTB risk were analysed with SPSS software version 19.0. After conducting stratification for age, a significant association was detected for rs1057141 with increased PTB risk (OR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.04–0.79) among those aged ≥60 years. For those aged <60 years, a marginally significant association was detected between rs1135216 TC/CC and PTB risk (OR = 1.97, 95% CI 0.93–4.19). Haplotype analysis revealed that the haplotype AT at rs1135216 and rs2228396, as well as AAT at rs1057141, rs1135216 and rs2228396, was associated with increased PTB risk, and the ORs were 2.83 (95% CI 1.30–6.14) and 2.89 (95% CI 1.34–6.27), respectively. Rs1057141 is a genetic predictor of reduced PTB risk for those aged ≥60 years, while rs1135216 might be a potential genetic predictor for those aged <60 years. Haplotype AT at rs1135216 and rs2228396, as well as AAT at rs1057141, rs1135216 and rs2228396, is a genetic marker that may predict PTB risk.

show abstract

“…There have been no recent systematic data published on changes of disease burden and regional disparities of TB in China, except for some studies which reported overall incidence trends [ 11 , 12 ]. The current study aims to examine changes in newly notified and newly smear-positive cases of TB in different regions of China based on national routine surveillance data from 1997 to 2018, and to assess the effectiveness of the TB control program in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in newly notified cases and control of tuberculosis in China: time-series analysis of surveillance data

Wang

Zhu

et al. 2021

Infect Dis Poverty

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background China has made progress in tuberculosis control, but this disease remains a burden in many regions of China. We performed time-series analysis to examine changes in the rates of newly notified and newly smear-positive cases of tuberculosis in different regions of China from 1997 to 2018 and assessed the effect of the current control program. Methods National and provincial notification data on tuberculosis from 1997 to 2018, which covers 31 provinces in the mainland of China, were extracted from the Chinese public health science data center. The annual percentage changes in newly notified and smear-positive cases were analyzed using a joinpoint regression method. Results There were 18 646 672 newly notified tuberculosis cases from 1997 to 2018, with the greatest number in 2005. A total of 6 605 414 of these cases (35.42%) were smear-positive cases. The number of newly notified cases in China overall decreased (96.88–59.27 cases per 100 000) significantly during the most recent years. The decline during this period ranged from −3.9% (95% CI −5.7 to −2.9) in the western region to −4.3% (95% CI −4.8 to −3.7) in the eastern region. Most provinces had significant declines in newly notified and smear-positive cases, whereas the decline of newly smear-positive cases in Xinjiang was about half of that observed during the same period in China overall (−4.1% vs −9.9%). In addition to disparities in annual percentage changes, the rate of newly notified cases was higher in the western region than in the eastern and central regions. Conclusions The burden of tuberculosis has been on declining throughout China during recent years, but tuberculosis in western China continues to be a public health emergency that needs to be urgently addressed. Effective prevention and control strategies are needed for regions with high disease burdens and those with increasing or unchanging numbers of newly notified and smear-positive cases of tuberculosis.

show abstract

A Long-Term Trend Study of Tuberculosis Incidence in China, India and United States 1992–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Cited by 32 publications

References 52 publications

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Associations of genetic variants at TAP1 and TAP2 with pulmonary tuberculosis risk among the Chinese population

Changes in newly notified cases and control of tuberculosis in China: time-series analysis of surveillance data

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About