A Long‐Lasting Precipitation Deficit in South China During Autumn‐Winter 2020/2021: Combined Effect of ENSO and Arctic Sea Ice

Sun, Bо; Wang, Huijun; Li, Huixin; Zhou, Botao; Duan, Mingkeng; Li, Hua

doi:10.1029/2021jd035584

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…which ultimately affects the subsequent drought through soil moisture-precipitation feedback and soil moisture-temperature feedback. Sun et al (2022) attributed drought in South China during autumn 2020 to water vapor divergence anomalies induced by an anomalous anticyclone over eastern China, which are caused by an anomalous Eurasian atmospheric wave-train triggered by the negative sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea-Kara Sea region.…”

Section: Spatial Coupling Relationship Between Spei and Sstmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplifying Meteorological Droughts Across Middle- and Low-Latitude Northern Hemisphere

et al. 2022

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Drought changes and the underlying causes have, in the backdrop of warming climate, aroused widespread concern. However, exact changes in patterns of meteorological droughts in both space and time are still open for debate. The Northern Hemisphere is home to 90% of the world’s population and has been afflicted by droughts over time. Here we present the evolution of spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological droughts, quantified by standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index across the Northern Hemisphere and related causes during a period of 1961–2018. We found amplifying droughts characterized by higher frequency, longer duration, and stronger severity across middle- and low-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, specifically, Mongolia, China and Central Asia expanding along central Eurasia, Circum-Mediterranean region, and southwestern North America (NA). Russia, Central Asia, China and the Indian Peninsula are regions with frequent droughts. Period of 1961–2018 witnessed spatial evolution of droughts in counterclockwise direction over North America. In general, the spatial evolution of meteorological droughts in Northern Hemisphere also followed counterclockwise direction due to the atmospheric pressure belt, wind belt, atmospheric circulation, and sea-land breeze. SPEI-based droughts were in close relation with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In particular, La Niña phenomenon could dry out southern NA and central and western Russia; and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation might affect the spatiotemporal variation of the drought in mid-high latitudes. These findings help understand meteorological droughts in the context of global warming.

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Section: Spatial Coupling Relationship Between Spei and Sstmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplifying Meteorological Droughts Across Middle- and Low-Latitude Northern Hemisphere

et al. 2022

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“…A number of studies have been devoted to the variability of wet/dry conditions over southern China and associated physical mechanisms at different time scales (e.g., Fan et al., 2014; Hsu et al., 2016; C. Li et al., 2015; G. Li et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2019; B. Sun et al., 2022; B. Wu et al., 2009; Y. Zhu et al., 2011; R. Zhang et al., 2017). For instance, the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation was documented to be highly related to the precipitation anomalies in southern China (Hsu et al., 2016; C. Li et al., 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhanced Linkage of Summer Drought in Southern China to the North Pacific Oscillation Since 2000

Zhou

Han

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Southern China, an economically developed region with a large population, has suffered from frequent occurrence of droughts in recent decades, which caused serious challenges to agriculture production, forest-fire prevention, and human lives (W. Li et al., 2022;C. Sun & Yang, 2012;Q. Zhang et al., 2019). It is thus of great value to improve our understanding on the variability and underlying physical mechanisms of droughts in southern China for the aim of disaster prevention and mitigation.A number of studies have been devoted to the variability of wet/dry conditions over southern China and associated physical mechanisms at different time scales (e.g.,

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“…However, Zhang et al (2020) attributed the cold phases of the N-and S-modes to reduced sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas and increased and decreased sea ice in the Bering-Chukchi and Barents-Kara Seas during autumn, respectively. Sun et al (2022) highlighted that the severe and prolonged drought in the SC during the autumn-winter 2020/2021 was in uenced by a dual factor of reduced sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas and the La Niña phenomenon in the equatorial central-eastern Paci c. It is imperative to consider both tropical and extratropical sources as predictive factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetry of Winter Precipitation Event Predictions in South China

Zhen,

Hou,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Winter precipitation anomalies in South China (SC) frequently result in severe disasters. However, the evaluation of prediction performance and distinctions between positive precipitation anomaly events (PPA, wet condition) and negative precipitation anomaly events (NPA, dry condition) in current operational models remains incomplete. This study employed the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) to assess winter precipitation prediction accuracy in SC from 1983 to 2021. Differences in predicting PPA and NPA events and the underlying physical mechanisms were explored. The results indicate that CFSv2 can effectively predict interannual variations in winter precipitation in SC, as there is a significant time correlation coefficient of 0.68 (0.62) between observations and predictions, with a lead time of 0 (3) months. The model revealed an intriguing asymmetry in prediction skills: PPA outperformed NPA in both deterministic and probabilistic prediction. The higher predictability of PPA, as indicated by the perfect model correlation and signal-to-noise ratio, contributed to its superior prediction performance when compared to NPA. Physically, tropical signals from the ENSO and extratropical signals from the Arctic Sea ice anomaly, were found to play pivotal roles in this asymmetric feature. ENSO significantly impacts PPA events, whereas NPA events are influenced by a complex interplay of factors involving ENSO and Arctic Sea ice, leading to low NPA predictability. The capability of the model to replicate Arctic Sea ice signals is limited, but it successfully predicts ENSO signals and reproduces their related circulation responses. This study highlights the asymmetrical features of precipitation prediction, aiding in prediction models improvement.

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A Long‐Lasting Precipitation Deficit in South China During Autumn‐Winter 2020/2021: Combined Effect of ENSO and Arctic Sea Ice

Cited by 18 publications

References 58 publications

Amplifying Meteorological Droughts Across Middle- and Low-Latitude Northern Hemisphere

Amplifying Meteorological Droughts Across Middle- and Low-Latitude Northern Hemisphere

Enhanced Linkage of Summer Drought in Southern China to the North Pacific Oscillation Since 2000

Asymmetry of Winter Precipitation Event Predictions in South China

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