A landscape‐scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors

Rojas, Isabel; Jennings, Megan K.; Conlisk, Erin; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Mikesell, J.; Kinoshita, A. M.; West, Krista; Stow, Douglas A.; Storey, Emanuel A.; Guzman, Mark E. De; Foote, Diane; Warneke, Alexandria; Pairis, Amber; Ryan, Sherry; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lewison, Rebecca L.

doi:10.1111/cobi.13834

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Our approach to identifying low response areas as functional drought refugia is in line with recent literature on the topic that suggests the need to "validate" potential refugia sites with empirical evidence of favorable organismal responses to anthropogenic warming-driven change (e.g., Barrows et al, 2020;Rojas et al, 2022). The more common topoclimate modeling-based approaches for identifying refugia focus on climatic suitability of key species within a landscape (e.g., Thorne et al, 2020); however, our approach and findings are consistent with literature on "disturbance refugia" (refugia from fire, drought, or pest/pathogen disturbances) which typically identify refugia as areas less impacted by disturbances (Krawchuk et al, 2020).…”

Section: Drivers Of Functional Drought Refugia For Bigcone Douglas-fi...supporting

confidence: 61%

Integration of landscape-level remote sensing and tree-level ecophysiology reveals drought refugia for a rare endemic, bigcone Douglas-fir

Post-Leon¹,

Dryak²,

Zhu³

et al. 2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

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For forest species, areas buffered from the rapidly increasing climate stressors and patterns of disturbance — i.e., climate change refugia — are important targets for conservation and protection. Here, we present a novel field survey and remote sensing approach to identification of fine-scale functional drought refugia for bigcone Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga macrocarpa)-dominated forests. This rare species has been exposed to climate change-exacerbated drought conditions over the past two decades; yet, little is known about its responses to recent drought and how these drought responses vary across local environmental gradients and interact with recent record wildfire seasons. We combined a remote sensing analysis of vegetation condition with field surveys and physiological measurements to better understand bigcone Douglas-fir responses to recent climate trends. We also identified 444 stands exhibiting relatively low response and high resilience to drought — i.e., potential drought refugia. We found that low elevation stands and those in south-facing aspects generally experienced greater levels of seasonal and interannual drought stress. This trend was more pronounced for stands that experienced fire (2007 Zaca Fire) prior to the drought, suggesting that wildfire can increase the importance of topographic mediation of climate conditions in bigcone Douglas-fir forests. Elevation and aspect also interacted to affect physiological acclimation to seasonal drought conditions, with low elevation north-facing sites in particular experiencing a favorable combination of greater climate buffering and greater drought resilience, suggesting that these sites may be important refugia for bigcone Douglas-fir at low elevations. Furthermore, we found that the relationships between topography and drought response were weaker in more coastal sites, possibly due to maritime climate buffering in these sites. Altogether, these results illustrate how topographic mediation of regional drought conditions is critical for the persistence of this rare species in drought and fire-prone landscapes, and offer important insights for the conservation and restoration of this iconic species.

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Section: Drivers Of Functional Drought Refugia For Bigcone Douglas-fi...supporting

confidence: 61%

Integration of landscape-level remote sensing and tree-level ecophysiology reveals drought refugia for a rare endemic, bigcone Douglas-fir

Post-Leon¹,

Dryak²,

Zhu³

et al. 2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…This barrier could prevent inter-site comparisons of recovery timescales and the factors that most greatly affected hydrologic recovery (Moody et al, 2013;Robinne et al, 2020;Wagenbrenner et al, 2021). Development of suites of metrics and criteria (e.g., Rojas et al, 2022) may advance standardization of recovery assessment after fire. Application of data sources with readily comparable values and widespread geographic availability could also help surmount the barrier of metric standardization.…”

Section: Barriers and Challenges For Assessing Post-fire Hydrologic R...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic recovery after wildfire: A framework of approaches, metrics, criteria, trajectories, and timescales

Ebel

Wagenbrenner

Kinoshita

et al. 2022

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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Deviations in hydrologic processes due to wildfire can alter streamflows across the hydrograph, spanning peak flows to low flows. Fire-enhanced changes in hydrologic processes, including infiltration, interception, and evapotranspiration, and the resulting streamflow responses can affect water supplies, through effects on the quantity, quality, and timing of water availability. Post-fire shifts in hydrologic processes can also alter the timing and magnitude of floods and debris flows. The duration of hydrologic deviations from a pre-fire condition or function, sometimes termed hydrologic recovery, is a critical concern for land, water, and emergency managers. We reviewed and summarized terminology and approaches for defining and assessing hydrologic recovery after wildfire, focusing on statistical and functional definitions. We critically examined advantages and drawbacks of current recovery assessment methods, outline challenges to determining recovery, and call attention to selected opportunities for advancement of post-fire hydrologic recovery assessment. Selected challenges included hydroclimatic variability, post-fire land management, and spatial and temporal variability. The most promising opportunities for advancing assessment of hydrologic recovery include: (1) combining statistical and functional recovery approaches, (2) using a greater diversity of post-fire observations complemented with hydrologic modeling, and (3) defining optimal assemblages of recovery metrics and criteria for common hydrologic concerns and regions.

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“…Fish and Wildlife Service 2020; see Supporting information for more details). Although climate-informed prioritizations rarely incorporate these additional stressors (but see Rojas et al 2021), we considered these factors necessary to minimize the possibility of identifying priority areas that would be further jeopardized by other anthropogenic threats. We developed species lists for each group through a combination of expert opinion and available SDMs.…”

Section: Biogeographical Groupsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Choice of prioritization method impacts recommendations for climate‐informed bird conservation in the United States

Taylor

Saunders

et al. 2022

Ecography

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Climate‐informed spatial planning is urgently needed to guide initiatives aimed at both conserving biodiversity as a whole (e.g. protection of 30% of lands and waters by 2030) and recovering North American avifauna in particular. Various methods for prioritizing conservation areas exist, yet alternative methods may direct managers to different lands for protection, and thus varying recommendations for meeting area‐based targets. Here, we used bird species distribution models and landcover projections to systematically evaluate two widely used methods for prioritizing areas most likely to facilitate the persistence of multiple species under climate change: 1) in situ macrorefugia, identified as areas of high predicted species retention; and 2) complementarity‐based optimizations, identified using the Zonation conservation planning software. For 17 biogeographical groups in the continental United States, we compared priority areas for bird conservation derived from these two alternatives with respect to their spatial distributions and consensus (i.e. overlap), expected conservation outcomes (e.g. species and functional diversity), predicted climate change exposure, habitat characteristics, landscape configurations and degree of formal protection. Spatial distributions of priority areas differed by biogeographical group and method, with 40.5% consensus on average across groups. Consensus was extensive within mountainous and coastal regions, and limited at high latitudes (e.g. Alaska) and in flat, interior regions (e.g. grasslands). As expected, complementarity‐based optimizations more efficiently represented species than retention‐based in situ macrorefugia, especially for forest groups, and had greater overall biodiversity value and better habitat condition. Conversely, in situ macrorefugia encompassed higher elevations and larger contiguous patches and were expected to experience less winter‐season warming. Formal protection averaged < 50% across biogeographical groups, regardless of prioritization method. Our findings illustrate the value of complementarity‐based optimizations for bird conservation under climate change. More broadly, comparing approaches for prioritizing areas for long‐term species persistence can reveal critical trade‐offs in recommendations for climate‐informed protected area planning.

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A landscape‐scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors

Abstract: Identifying refugia from multiple stressors can inform conservation plans that aim to protect biodiversity in a changing world.

Cited by 17 publications

References 49 publications

Integration of landscape-level remote sensing and tree-level ecophysiology reveals drought refugia for a rare endemic, bigcone Douglas-fir

Integration of landscape-level remote sensing and tree-level ecophysiology reveals drought refugia for a rare endemic, bigcone Douglas-fir

Hydrologic recovery after wildfire: A framework of approaches, metrics, criteria, trajectories, and timescales

Choice of prioritization method impacts recommendations for climate‐informed bird conservation in the United States

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