In an emerging climate crisis, effective conservation requires both adaptation and mitigation to improve the resilience of species. The currently pledged emissions reductions outlined in the Paris Agreement framework would still lead to a +3.2°C increase in global mean temperature by the end of this century. In this context, we assess the vulnerability of 604 North American bird species and identify the species and locations most at risk under climate change. We do this based on species distribution models for both the breeding and nonbreeding seasons, projected under two global warming scenarios (an optimistic mitigation scenario 1.5°C and an unmitigated 3.0°C scenario). We evaluate vulnerability under each season and scenario by assessing sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on modeled range loss and range gain, respectively, and based on species specific dispersal abilities. Our study, the first of its magnitude, finds that over two‐thirds of North American birds are moderately or highly vulnerable to climate change under a 3.0°C scenario. Of these climate‐vulnerable species, 76% would have reduced vulnerability and 38% of those would be considered nonvulnerable if warming were stabilized at 1.5°C. Thus, the current pledge in greenhouse gas reductions set by the Paris Agreement is inadequate to reduce vulnerability to North American birds. Additionally, if climate change proceeds on its current trajectory, arctic birds, waterbirds, and boreal and western forest birds will be highly vulnerable to climate change, groups that are currently not considered of high conservation concern. There is an urgent need for both (a) policies to mitigate emissions and (b) prioritization to identify where to focus adaptation actions to protect birds in a changing climate.
Biodiversity is being lost at an alarming rate across the globe, with extinction rates up to a hundred times greater than historical norms. Climate change will only exacerbate this crisis. The rapid pace of projected climate change is set to push birds to seek new locations, drastically reshuffling the avian communities of North America. In an emerging climate crisis, effective conservation requires both adaptation and mitigation to improve the resilience of species. However, the pledged reductions in greenhouse gas emissions outlined in the Paris Agreement framework would still lead to a 3.2°C or greater increase in global mean temperature by the end of this century. In this study, we use big data analytics to develop species distribution models and assess the vulnerability of 604 North American birds to multiple climate change scenarios. We assess how climate change mitigation can affect the number of species vulnerable to climate change, as well as the species and locations at risk if emissions continue unchecked. Our results indicate that over two-thirds of North American birds are moderately or highly vulnerable to climate change under a 3.0°C global warming scenario. Of these climate-vulnerable species, 76% would have reduced vulnerability and 38% of those would be considered non-vulnerable if warming were stabilized at 1.5°C. Thus, the current pledge in greenhouse gas reductions set by the Paris Agreement is inadequate to reduce vulnerability to birds. Additionally, if climate change proceeds on its current trajectory, arctic birds, waterbirds and boreal and western forest birds will be highly vulnerable to climate change; groups that are currently not considered of high conservation concern. Thus, there is an urgent need for both aggressive policies to mitigate emissions and focused conservation adaptation actions to protect birds and the places they need in a changing climate.
Introduction: Hyaluronic acid (HA) acts as a biologic humectant, thus retaining water in the skin, making HA useful as a topical moisturizing ingredient. The goal of the research was to evaluate the ability of a HA facial serum to deliver skin benefits. Methods: Forty females 30-65 years of age with Fitzpatrick skin types I-VI who exhibited photoaging used the HA facial serum twice daily with sunscreen. The dermatologist investigator evaluated smoothness, plumping, hydration, fine lines/wrinkles, and global appearance issues on a 5-point ordinal scale. The subjects assessed product tolerability in terms of stinging, itching, and burning. Corneometry was undertaken, with assessments performed at baseline, immediately after application, and at weeks 2, 4, and 6. Facial swabbing and photography were performed at the same intervals on a subset of 15 subjects. Results:The HA serum demonstrated excellent tolerability and produced an increase in skin hydration (as measured by corneometry) immediately after application of 134% (p \ 0.001), with a sustained increase of 55% (p \ 0.001) at week 6. At week 6, there was also improvement (p B 0.001) in all evaluated attributes: smoothness (64%), plumping (60%), hydration (63%), fine lines (31%), wrinkles (14%), and overall global assessment (43%). Facial swabbing confirmed an increase in topical HA at week 6 (p = 0.04), accounting for the enhanced skin appearance, but there was no statistically significant increase in IL-1a, indicating no product irritation. Conclusion: Topical HA in a serum formulation provides excellent skin hydration, as demonstrated through clinical, photographic, chemical, and instrumental assessments.
One of the most pressing questions in ecology and conservation centers on disentangling the relative impacts of concurrent global change drivers, climate and land-use/ land-cover (LULC), on biodiversity. Yet studies that evaluate the effects of both drivers on species' winter distributions remain scarce, hampering our ability to develop full-annual-cycle conservation strategies. Additionally, understanding how groups of species differentially respond to climate versus LULC change is vital for efforts to enhance bird community resilience to future environmental change. We analyzed long-term changes in winter occurrence of 89 species across nine bird groups over a 90-year period within the eastern United States using Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data. We estimated variation in occurrence probability of each group as a function of spatial and temporal variation in winter climate (minimum temperature, cumulative precipitation) and LULC (proportion of group-specific and anthropogenic habitats within CBC circle). We reveal that spatial variation in bird occurrence probability was consistently explained by climate across all nine species groups. Conversely, LULC change explained more than twice the temporal variation (i.e., decadal changes) in bird occurrence probability than climate change on average across groups. This pattern was largely driven by habitat-constrained species (e.g., grassland birds, waterbirds), whereas decadal changes in occurrence probabilities of habitat-unconstrained species (e.g., forest passerines, mixed habitat birds) were equally explained by both climate and LULC changes over the last century. We conclude that climate has generally governed the winter occurrence of avifauna in space and time, while LULC change has played a pivotal role in driving distributional dynamics of species with limited and declining habitat availability. Effective land management will be critical for improving species' resilience to climate change, especially during a season of relative resource scarcity and critical energetic trade-offs.
North American grasslands are one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and grassland bird populations have experienced drastic declines over the past half century. Land‐use change is widely accepted as the most persistent threat, and climate change is expected to further compromise grassland integrity. The limited consideration of projected future threats is a significant gap in existing conservation priorities for North America's central grasslands. We identified Grassland Climate Strongholds (predicted to have high climate suitability for grassland birds both today and under 21st century climate change scenarios) and Grassland Climate and Land‐use Strongholds (predicted to have high climate and land‐use suitability for grassland birds today and under 21st century climate change scenarios). Strongholds were mainly distributed across southern Canada, the Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, the Oklahoma Panhandle, Texas, and the Chihuahuan Desert. Strongholds vulnerable to land‐use conversion included the Prairie Pothole region and surrounding areas, much of the eastern‐central Plains, the Texas Blackland Prairie, the Western Gulf Coastal Plain, and areas west of the Chihuahuan Desert. A maximum of only 9% of strongholds were protected. Strongholds are critical for full annual cycle conservation of declining grassland birds in North America and complement existing grassland priorities.
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