A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Mitchell, Dann; Osprey, Scott; Ineson, Sarah; Hardiman, Steven C.; Butchart, Neal; Knight, Jeff; Sutton, Rowan; Kodera, Kunihiko

doi:10.1002/2013jd020062

Cited by 181 publications

(287 citation statements)

References 106 publications

(113 reference statements)

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“…This lagged association is evident in winter in a number of recent studies Gray et al 2013;Andrews et al 2015). The arc of high-pressure anomalies associated with a leading solar signal extending from the mid Atlantic across the UK and into Eastern Europe bears close resemblance to the pattern identified for winter (Gray et al 2013, their Fig.…”

Section: Solar Influencesmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…6a) associated with high solar cycle activity, perhaps reflecting seasonal variability in the link. This suggests summer impacts during the interannual buildup and therefore persistence of the solar signal in the Atlantic ocean, during which the atmospheric response increases through atmosphere-ocean coupling Gray et al 2013) although it is interesting to note that while the predominant influence of SST anomalies above is on jet speed, here the association is with latitude.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…The question of solar cycle impact on climate has been controversial and solar signals in atmospheric variability have not been detected on a consistent basis, with much work, it has been suggested, relying on inadequate and non-robust statistics (Lockwood 2012). The importance of lagged correlations supports the analysis of Scaife et al (2013) and Gray et al (2013) although those studies focus on winter. Here the relationship is weaker, but shows a similar spatial distribution and lag, with high pressure anomalies in the central Atlantic and arcing across central Europe (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to obtain data for the whole period, monthly sunspot numbers are obtained from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be/). Analysis is also carried out using solar indices leading by one to 5 years, as recent evidence suggests that there is a lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability Gray et al 2013;Thiéblemont et al 2015;Andrews et al 2015).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Jones

Hanna

et al. 2016

Clim Dyn

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Section: Solar Influencesmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Jones

Hanna

et al. 2016

Clim Dyn

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“…Proposed transfer mechanisms include changes in TSI and SSI, as well as in solar-driven energetic particles (e.g., . In addition, recent work suggests a lagged response in the North Atlantic and European sector due to atmosphere-ocean coupling (e.g., Gray et al, 2013;Scaife et al, 2013), as well as a synchronization of decadal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by the solar cycle (Thieblemont et al, 2015). Lagged responses have been also attributed to particle effects , and hence the observed solar surface signal could be a combination of topdown solar UV and particle mechanisms as well as bottomup atmosphere-ocean mechanisms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

et al. 2017

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Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...

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Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle

2014

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Several recent studies have found variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter climate related to different parameters of solar activity. While these results consistently indicate some kind of solar modulation of tropospheric and stratospheric circulation and surface temperature, opinions on the exact mechanism and the solar driver differ. Proposed drivers include, e.g., total solar irradiance (TSI), solar UV radiation, galactic cosmic rays, and magnetospheric energetic particles. While some of these drivers are difficult to distinguish because of their closely similar variation over the solar cycle, other suggested drivers have clear differences in their solar cycle evolution. For example, geomagnetic activity and magnetospheric particle fluxes peak in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle, in difference to TSI and UV radiation which more closely follow sunspots. Using 13 solar cycles (1869-2009), we study winter surface temperatures and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during four different phases of the sunspot cycle: minimum, ascending, maximum, and declining phase. We find significant differences in the temperature patterns between the four cycle phases, which indicates a solar cycle modulation of winter surface temperatures. However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity.

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A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

Cited by 181 publications

References 106 publications

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle

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