A hybrid risk assessment approach for assessing the earthquake risks in worn-out urban fabrics: a case study in Iran

Abstract

Purpose To reduce financial and human losses, managing risks associated with earthquakes is essential in practice. However, in using common risk management methods, experts are often faced with ambiguities that can create profound challenges for risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a logical and straightforward risk assessment model to provide scientific and accurate answers to complex problems. This study aims to recommend an innovative combined method based on the probability-impact (P-I) approach and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory to identify and prioritize the essential earthquake risks associated with worn-out urban fabrics in the context of Iran. Design/methodology/approach The opinions of 15 experts in the fields of civil engineering and urban construction were gathered during brainstorming sessions. These brainstorming sessions were conducted to determine the probability of risks and the effect of identified risks. After calculating the severity of risks using the P-I approach and converting them to intuitionistic fuzzy sets, the risks were measured and prioritized based on their individual scores. Findings The study results indicated that risk of damage due to buildings’ age and flooding risk had the highest and lowest priorities in causes of financial damage, respectively. Furthermore, the risk of damage due to building quality (demolition) and building age was the most important. The risk of flooding and damage to communication networks has the lowest importance among causes of fatalities in worn-out urban fabrics. Originality/value The study findings and recommendations can be served as a policy and consultative instrument for the relevant stakeholders in the area of urban management.

Critical success factors for private sector participation in accomplishing abandoned public sports facilities projects in Iran

“…As a result, participants in the Delphi survey are experts, critics, and panelists with sound knowledge and abundant experience in the matter at hand and sufficient time and necessary communication skills for participation (Yeung et al, 2007). In these surveys, the number of experts involved is usually less than 50 and often between 10 to 20 (Sadeghi et al, 2021). The actual number of experts involved depends on factors such as sample homogeneity, Delphi goal, difficulty range, decision quality, team research ability, internal and external validity, data collection time, available resources, and the scope of the problem being investigated (Chan & Choi, 2015).…”