A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk

Abstract

There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a novel approach to overcome this problem, using the statistical model STORM to generate 10,000 years of synthetic TCs under past (1980–2017) and future climate (SSP585; 2015–2050) conditions from an ensemble of four high-resolution climate models. We then derive high-resolution (10-km) wind speed return period maps up to 1000 years to assess local-scale changes in wind speed probabilities. Our results indicate that the probability of intense TCs, on average, more than doubles in all regions except for the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico. Our unique and innovative methodology enables globally consistent comparison of TC risk in both time and space and can be easily adapted to accommodate alternative climate scenarios and time periods.

Unraveling unknowns of future tropical cyclone risks

“…In contrast to the other key components of risk modelling -exposure and vulnerability -hazard simulations are substantially more advanced. We have many skillful models and approaches available to simulate future TCs 19,31,32 . But this availability is unmatched on the side of exposure and vulnerability.…”

Recent Advances and New Frontiers in Riverine and Coastal Flood Modeling

“…This approach, based on the concept of “cumulative hazards” first proposed by (H. R. Moftakhari, AghaKouchak, et al., 2017), to make a fair comparison between hazard scenarios continuously monitoring TCs and their evolution over time and/or space, ranks them based on regional dependencies between forcing (e.g., wind and rainfall) and compound coastal flood drivers (storm surge and river flow). In fact, fluvial, pluvial, and coastal floods are all products of TCs, and different TC paths could have different flooding impacts at a given location of interest (Bloemendaal et al., 2022; Kyprioti et al., 2021a, 2021b; Marsooli et al., 2019). Thus, a probabilistic scheme that accumulates the potential hazardousness of TCs according to their intensity at a given point along their paths will be helpful for improving the efficiency of flood forecasting systems.…”

Tropical cyclone risk to global mangrove ecosystems: potential future regional shifts

“…We also incorporated uncertainty of the TC activity projections into the uncertainty of our TC risk projections (WebFigure 4). It should also be noted our analysis did not account for (i) changes in subregional TC activity (Bloemendaal et al 2022), which are likely to lead to more complex spatial patterns of shifts in risk, or (ii) projected increases in sea level and storm-induced surges, precipitation, and flooding, which are likely to amplify TC damage and thus risk (Woodruff et al 2013).…”