A Global Scale Estimate of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases Using Extreme Value Distributions

Abstract

4The COVID-19 pandemic has created a global crisis and the governments are fighting rigorously 1 5 to control the spread by imposing intervention measures and increasing the medical facilities. In 1 6 order to tackle the crisis effectively we need to know the trajectories of number of the people 1 7 infected (i.e. confirmed cases). Such information is crucial to government agencies for 1 8 developing effective preparedness plans and strategies. We used a statistical modeling approach 1 9 4 1 number of confirmed, recovered, and mortality cases were 1,595,350, 353,975 and 95,455 4 2 respectively [3]. The reported cases globally are drastically increasing from 4,219/day in 4 3 February 2020 to 50,784/day in early April 2020. The trajectory of the infection spread during 4 4the coming days is important information in order to plan, prepare, and scale up the intervention 4 5