A global outlook on increasing wildfire risk: Current policy situation and future pathways

Pandey, Pooja; Huidobro, Gabriela; Lopes, Luis Filipe; Ganteaume, Anne; Ascoli, Davide; Colaco, Conceição; Xanthopoulos, Gavriil; Giannaros, Theodore M.; Gazzard, Rob; Boustras, Georgios; Steelman, Toddi; Charlton, Valerie; Ferguson, Euan; Kirschner, Judith; Little, Kerryn; Stoof, Cathelijne; Nikolakis, William; Fernández-Blanco, Carmen Rodriguez; Ribotta, Claudio; Lambrechts, Hugo; Fernandez, Mariña; Dossi, Simona

doi:10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100431

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…As highlighted in previous studies, such as [34], the importance of long-term policies aimed at addressing the structural causes of wildfires and integrating wildfire and forest management strategies is paramount [5,82]. Our model simulations point toward an urgent paradigm shift, centered on 'fire-smart' management, which should aim to mitigate fire severity through fuel treatments accompanied by land-use conversions (preferably to fireresistant or fire-resilient vegetation types).…”

Section: Future Perspective and Challengesmentioning

confidence: 78%

Optimizing Wildfire Prevention through the Integration of Prescribed Burning into ‘Fire-Smart’ Land-Use Policies

Pais,

Aquilué,

Honrado

et al. 2023

Fire

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Integrating fire into land management is crucial in fire-prone regions. To evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of prescribed fire (PF), we employed the REMAINS model in NW Iberia’s Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés. We tested three levels of prescribed fire treatment effort for shrubland and grassland, employing three spatial allocation strategies: random distribution, prioritization in high-wildfire-risk zones, and creating fuel breaks by utilizing the existing road network. These approaches were assessed in isolation and in combination with three land-use scenarios: Business-as-usual (representing rural abandonment trends), High Nature Value farmland (reversing farmland abandonment), and Fire-Smart forest management (promoting fire-resistant landscapes). Our results confirm that PF is effective in reducing future wildfires (reductions up to 36%), with leverage values ranging from 0.07 to 0.45. Strategic spatial allocation, targeting wildfire-risk areas and existing road networks, is essential for maximizing prescribed fire’s efficiency (leverage effort of 0.32 and 0.45; i.e., approximately 3 ha of PF decrease subsequent wildfire by 1 ha). However, the PF treatments yield the best efficiency when integrated into land-use policies promoting ‘fire-smart’ landscapes (reaching leverage values of up to 1.78 under policies promoting ‘HNVf and ‘fire-smart’ forest conversion). These recommendations strengthen wildfire prevention and enhance landscape resilience in fire-prone regions.

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Section: Future Perspective and Challengesmentioning

confidence: 78%

Optimizing Wildfire Prevention through the Integration of Prescribed Burning into ‘Fire-Smart’ Land-Use Policies

Pais,

Aquilué,

Honrado

et al. 2023

Fire

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“…The main goal of this paper was to design a conceptual model that would enable fire hazard and fire risk assessment at a more detailed level, using moderate-to high-resolution data that were already available. Different fire risk assessment methodologies have been proposed and applied over the past decades, covering large, macro-scale regions (e.g., Canada, USA, Europe, Australia [2,22,24,27,31,116]). However, fire drivers as well as their possible consequences are still not adequately described at a finer resolution, capturing the heterogeneity of fire risk variables at the micro-or meso-scales.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conceptual Model for Integrated Meso-Scale Fire Risk Assessment in the Coastal Catchments in Croatia

Horvat,

Karleuša

2024

Remote Sensing

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Various factors influence wildfire probability, including land use/land cover (LULC), fuel types, and their moisture content, meteorological conditions, and terrain characteristics. The Adriatic Sea coastal area in Croatia has a long record of devastating wildfires that have caused severe ecological and economic damages as well as the loss of human lives. Assessing the conditions favorable for wildfires and the possible damages are crucial in fire risk management. Adriatic settlements and ecosystems are highly vulnerable, especially during summer, when the pressure from tourist migration is the highest. However, available fire risk models designed to fit the macro-scale level of assessment cannot provide information detailed enough to meet the decision-making conditions at the local level. This paper describes a model designed to assess wildfire risks at the meso-scale, focusing on environmental and anthropogenic descriptors derived from moderate- to high-resolution remote sensing data (Sentinel-2), Copernicus Land Monitoring Service datasets, and other open sources. Risk indices were integrated using the multi-criteria decision analysis method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in a GIS environment. The model was tested in three coastal catchments, each having recently experienced severe fire events. The approach successfully identified zones at risk and the level of risk, depending on the various environmental and anthropogenic conditions.

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“…Extreme events are driving change faster than predictions (Almazroui et al, 2021;Tabari, 2020) and as a result, tipping points forecast for later in the century may be on the verge of breach. Already the increase of fires worldwide (Clarke et al, 2022;Pandey et al, 2023), and in the previously frozen Arctic Boreal forest (Dieleman et al, 2020, p. 202;Kim et al, 2020;Veraverbeke et al, 2017), the change in ocean salinity and overturning as a consequence of ice melt (Almeida et al, 2023;Boers, 2021;Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen, 2023;Fournier et al, 2023), and the switch of carbon sequestration to emission of the Amazon (Gatti et al, 2021;Lovejoy & Nobre, 2018) and Arctic tundra (de Vrese & Brovkin, 2021;Heffernan et al, 2020;Hugelius et al, 2020) have been reported (Figure 2).…”

Section: Cross-scale Changes Drive Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Decadal Survey Without Analogs: Earth Observation Needs for a Warming World

Miner,

Braghiere,

Miller

et al. 2024

AGU Advances

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Since 2007, the National Academy for Sciences Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) has recommended Earth Science research and investment priorities every 10 years. The Decadal Survey balances the continuation of essential climate variable time series against unmet measurement needs and new Earth Observations made possible by technological breakthroughs. The next survey (2027–2028, DS28) will be framed by a rapidly changing world, and it will be critical to anticipate the observational needs of the 2030s–2040s, a world increasingly dominated by climate extremes and a rapidly changing Earth system. Here, we highlight some of the changes that factor into a framework for the DS28.

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A global outlook on increasing wildfire risk: Current policy situation and future pathways

Cited by 15 publications

References 65 publications

Optimizing Wildfire Prevention through the Integration of Prescribed Burning into ‘Fire-Smart’ Land-Use Policies

Optimizing Wildfire Prevention through the Integration of Prescribed Burning into ‘Fire-Smart’ Land-Use Policies

Conceptual Model for Integrated Meso-Scale Fire Risk Assessment in the Coastal Catchments in Croatia

A Decadal Survey Without Analogs: Earth Observation Needs for a Warming World

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