Conceptual Model for Integrated Meso-Scale Fire Risk Assessment in the Coastal Catchments in Croatia

Abstract

Various factors influence wildfire probability, including land use/land cover (LULC), fuel types, and their moisture content, meteorological conditions, and terrain characteristics. The Adriatic Sea coastal area in Croatia has a long record of devastating wildfires that have caused severe ecological and economic damages as well as the loss of human lives. Assessing the conditions favorable for wildfires and the possible damages are crucial in fire risk management. Adriatic settlements and ecosystems are highly vulnerable, especially during summer, when the pressure from tourist migration is the highest. However, available fire risk models designed to fit the macro-scale level of assessment cannot provide information detailed enough to meet the decision-making conditions at the local level. This paper describes a model designed to assess wildfire risks at the meso-scale, focusing on environmental and anthropogenic descriptors derived from moderate- to high-resolution remote sensing data (Sentinel-2), Copernicus Land Monitoring Service datasets, and other open sources. Risk indices were integrated using the multi-criteria decision analysis method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in a GIS environment. The model was tested in three coastal catchments, each having recently experienced severe fire events. The approach successfully identified zones at risk and the level of risk, depending on the various environmental and anthropogenic conditions.