A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition. Part I: Characteristics across Basins

Bieli, Melanie; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Evans, Jenni L.; Hall, Timothy M.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0518.1

Cited by 51 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(88 reference statements)

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“…It is likely that many of these storms have undergone extra-tropical transition as they move poleward or they have merged with other synoptic systems and have lost their TC characteristics. About 20% of TCs in the South Indian Ocean and the Australian region undergo extra-tropical transitions (Bieli, Camargo, Sobel, Evans, & Hall, 2019). Lavender and Dowdy (2016) produced a map showing TC track direction climatology throughout the Australian region.…”

Section: Spatial Locations and Tracksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends

Chand

Dowdy

Ramsay

et al. 2019

WIREs Climate Change

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human‐induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long‐term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up‐to‐date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

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Section: Spatial Locations and Tracksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends

Chand

Dowdy

Ramsay

et al. 2019

WIREs Climate Change

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“…Except for the Southern Indian Ocean, the annual frequency of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET [106][107][108]) does not show any statistically significant trend in the present climate [117]. The investigation of potential changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing ET in a warmer climate has received relatively little attention.…”

Section: Extratropical Transition Of Tropical Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

Catto

Ackerley

Booth

et al. 2019

Curr Clim Change Rep

112

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Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones. Climate change. Windstorms. Idealized model. CMIP models This article is part of the Topical Collection on Mid-latitude Processes and Climate Change

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“…Evans and Hart (2003) defined the onset of ET when the cyclone becomes asymmetric (B > 10 m) and the completion of ET when the cold core develops (ÀV L T < 0 m). In the North Atlantic, up to half of all tropical cyclones undergo ET and become mid-latitude cyclones (Hart and Evans, 2001;Bieli et al, 2019). Furthermore, out of the tropical cyclones that undergo extratropical transition in the North Atlantic, 51% undergo post-ET intensification (Hart and Evans, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia (2017) as diagnosed with a generalized omega equation and vorticity equation

Rantanen¹,

Räisänen²,

Sinclair³

et al. 2020

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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Hurricane Ophelia was a category 3 hurricane which underwent extratropical transition and made landfall in Europe as an exceptionally strong post-tropical cyclone in October 2017. In Ireland, Ophelia was the worst storm in 50 years and resulted in significant damage and even loss of life. In this study, the different physical processes affecting Ophelia's transformation from a hurricane to a mid-latitude cyclone are studied. For this purpose, we have developed software that uses OpenIFS model output and a system consisting of a generalized omega equation and vorticity equation. By using these two equations, the atmospheric vertical motion and vorticity tendency are separated into the contributions from different physical processes: vorticity advection, thermal advection, friction, diabatic heating, and the imbalance between the temperature and vorticity tendencies. Vorticity advection, which is often considered an important forcing for the development of mid-latitude cyclones, is shown to play a small role in the re-intensification of the low-level cyclone. Instead, our results show that the adiabatic upper-level forcing was strongly amplified by moist processes, and thus, the diabatic heating was the dominant forcing in both the tropical and extratropical phases of Ophelia. Furthermore, we calculated in more detail the diabatic heating contributions from different model parameterizations. We find that the temperature tendency due to the convection scheme was the dominant forcing for the vorticity tendency during the hurricane phase, but as Ophelia transformed into a mid-latitude cyclone, the microphysics temperature tendency, presumably dominated by large-scale condensation, gradually increased becoming the dominant forcing once the transition was complete. Temperature tendencies caused by other diabatic processes, such as radiation, surface processes, vertical diffusion, and gravity wave drag, were found to be negligible in the development of the storm.

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A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition. Part I: Characteristics across Basins

Cited by 51 publications

References 58 publications

Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends

Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends

The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

The extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia (2017) as diagnosed with a generalized omega equation and vorticity equation

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