A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

Vries, Andries Jan de; Jan, Andries

doi:10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021

Cited by 59 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 151 publications

(282 reference statements)

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“…Nonetheless, our results do highlight a clear dynamical mechanism of possible importance to future changes in EPI. Given the established role of VA in observed subtropical EPEs (e.g., de Vries et al, 2018;Ma et al, 2019;de Vries, 2021), our results motivate further examination of its role in future EPI changes. With additional controlled modelling experiments over a variety of regions (especially land regions, which we have not considered here), we aim to build up a level of mechanistic under-standing that can be used to further assess climate models and improve confidence in regional projections of extreme precipitation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Further Probing the Mechanisms Driving Projected Subtropical Decreases of Extreme Precipitation Intensity.

Tma

Tandon

2021

Preprint

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Regional projections of extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) are strongly influenced by regional projections of “extreme ascent,” i.e. ascending air during periods of extreme precipitation. Earlier studies have performed analysis suggesting that long-term changes in eddy length scale and vertical stability are key factors influencing extreme ascent projections, but these mechanisms have yet to be confirmed with controlled model experiments. In this study, we perform such controlled experiments using a cloud-resolving model (CRM). The selected CRM domains are two locations over the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean where global climate models consistently project weakening of extreme ascent with accordingly decreased EPI. At each study location, three pairs of 20-year maximum precipitation events are simulated with the CRM, with each pair consisting of an event during the historical period (1981-2000) and an event during the future period (2081-2100), with large-scale forcings for the three pairs derived from three different members of an initial condition ensemble of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2). These experiments reveal that, in both study locations, weakening of differential cyclonic vorticity advection (dCVA) is a key driver of projected decreases in extreme ascent and EPI. Weakening of dCVA is expected in accordance with hydrostatic balance because, as temperatures warm, the pressure spacing between geopotential surfaces increases. Although there is evidence that the CRM is more sensitive to dCVA changes than CanESM2, such a dCVA mechanism may nonetheless be important to consider for EPI changes in the real world.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Further Probing the Mechanisms Driving Projected Subtropical Decreases of Extreme Precipitation Intensity.

Tma

Tandon

2021

Preprint

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“…Particularly for the Middle East, extreme precipitation events can be the result of tropical-extratropical interactions, for example, Active Red Sea Troughs (de Vries et al, 2013) and cut-off lows and highs from mid-latitudes (Francis et al, 2019a) associated with changes in the polar jet circulation (Francis & Vavrus, 2012;Francis et al, 2018 andLiu et al, 2021). Stratospheric potential vorticity streamers, as indicators of Rossby wave breaking, combined with intense moisture transport, can contribute substantially to this type of extreme event in the region (de Vries et al, 2018;de Vries, 2021). Dust radiative forcing may shift the ITCZ northwards, thus affecting extreme precipitation events over the southwest Arabian Peninsula Nelli et al, 2021a), while it may modulate the rainfall over southwest and south Asia (Jin et al, 2021).…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Liu et al, 2021). Stratospheric potential vorticity streamers, as indicators of Rossby wave breaking, combined with intense moisture transport, can contribute substantially to this type of extreme event in the region (De Vries, 2021;De Vries et al, 2018). Dust radiative forcing may shift the ITCZ northwards, thus affecting extreme precipitation events over the southwest Arabian Peninsula , while it may modulate the rainfall over southwest and south Asia (Q.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Zittis

Almazroui

Alpert

et al. 2022

Reviews of Geophysics

204

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 The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East region is warming almost two times faster than the global average and more rapidly than other inhabited parts of the world. Climate projections indicate a future warming that is particularly strong in the summer, associated with unprecedented heat extremes. Total precipitation will likely decrease in many regions, particularly in the eastern Mediterranean. Virtually all socio-economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes.

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“…1c), implying that between 1 out of 20 and 1 out of 40 wet days feature comparable precipitation accumulations as the ones observed on average during the 𝓢 20 . This result underlines that the 𝓢 20 constitute a set of potentially high-impact precipitation episodes that is different from heavy precipitation events commonly identified based on very high (99 th ) percentiles of (sub)daily precipitation in previous studies (Pfahl and Wernli, 2012;Moore et al, 2021;de Vries, 2021).…”

Section: Climatological Characteristics Of the Longest Wet Spellsmentioning

confidence: 46%

The role of cyclones and PV cutoffs for the occurrence of unusually long wet spells in Europe

Röthlisberger¹,

Scherrer²,

Vries³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The synoptic dynamics leading to the longest wet spells in Europe are so far poorly investigated, despite these events’ potentially large societal impacts. Here we examine the role of cyclones and PV cutoffs for unusually long wet spells in Europe, defined as the 20 longest uninterrupted periods with at least 5 mm daily accumulated precipitation at each ERA-Interim grid point in Europe (this set of spells is hereafter referred to as δ20). The δ20 occur predominantly in summer over the eastern continent, in winter over the North Atlantic, in winter or fall over the Atlantic coast, and in fall over the Mediterranean and European inland seas. Four case studies reveal distinct archetypal synoptic storylines for long wet spells: (a) A seven-day wet spell near Moscow, Russia, is associated with a single slow-moving cutoff-cyclone couple; (b) a 15-day wet spell in Norway features a total of nine rapidly passing extratropical cyclones and illustrates serial cyclone clustering as a second storyline; (c) a 12-day wet spell in Tuscany, Italy, is associated with a single but very large cutoff-complex, which is replenished multiple times by a sequence of recurrent anticyclonic wave breaking events over the North Atlantic and western Europe; and (d) a 17-day wet spell in the Balkans features intermittent periods of diurnal convection in an environment of weak synoptic forcing and recurrent passages of cutoffs and thus also highlights the role of diurnal convection for long wet spells over land. A systematic analysis of cyclone and cutoff occurrences during the δ20 reveals considerable spatial variability in their respective role for the δ20. For instance, cyclones and cutoffs are present anywhere between 10 % and 90 %, and 20 % and 70 % of the δ20 time steps, respectively, depending on the geographical region. However, overall both cyclones and cutoffs appear in larger number and at a higher rate during the δ20 compared to climatology. Furthermore, in the Mediterranean, the cutoffs and cyclones are significantly more persistent during the δ20 compared to climatology. Our study thus documents for the first time the palette of synoptic storylines accompanying unusually long wet spells across Europe, which is a prerequisite for developing an understanding of how these events might change in a warming climate and for evaluating the ability of climate models to realistically simulate the synoptic processes relevant to these events.

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A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

Cited by 59 publications

References 151 publications

Further Probing the Mechanisms Driving Projected Subtropical Decreases of Extreme Precipitation Intensity.

Further Probing the Mechanisms Driving Projected Subtropical Decreases of Extreme Precipitation Intensity.

Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

The role of cyclones and PV cutoffs for the occurrence of unusually long wet spells in Europe

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