A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Abstract

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: Interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

“…The COVID-19 pandemic and first lockdown orders led to rapid changes in everyday routine activities, which had direct effects on opportunities for crime (Nivette et al, 2021). Immediately after the first stay-at-home orders came into force in many countries in March 2020, many researchers noted that various forms of property and violent crime had suffered a notable decrease due to the reduced opportunities for offenders to converge with targets in physical settings (Abrams, 2021;Ashby, 2020).…”

“…Changes in recorded crime were also found in Sweden (Gerell et al, 2020), Mexico (Estévez-Soto, 2021), China (Borrion et al, 2020) and Australia (Payne et al, 2021). Nivette et al (2021) recorded crime data from 27 cities across 23 countries and concluded that stayat-home orders contributed to a considerable global drop in urban crime. Some researchers noted, however, that while many types of offline crime were decreasing, there were signs that the changes in routine activities brought about by the first lockdown had increased opportunities for online crime.…”

“…All these unprecedented changes in routine activities brought about by the COVID-19 lockdowns are expected to have short-and medium-term impacts on crime in Northern Ireland, as seen in other parts of the world (Nivette et al, 2021). We will analyse changes in crime after the first lockdown (March 23 rd 2020), second lockdown (October 16 th 2020) and the stay-at-home order of the third lockdown (January 8 th 2021).…”

“…The COVID-19 pandemic and the first stay-at-home orders imposed by national and regional governments were linked to notable decreases in some types of violent and property crime in the United States (Abrams, 2021;Ashby, 2020;Mohler et al, 2020), the United Kingdom (Halford et al, 2020), Australia (Payne et al, 2021) and other countries (Nivette et al, 2021). Simultaneously, research observed increases in other offences that occur in physical and digital places less affected by lockdown mobility restrictions, such as domestic violence (Piquero et al, 2021), cyber-enabled fraud (Kemp et al, 2021), online hate speech (Stechemesser et al, 2020) and some forms of hacking (Buil-Gil et al, 2021).…”

Parallel Outbreaks of Deadly Pathogens (SARS-CoV-2, H5N8, EVD, Black Fungi) around East Africa and Asia in 2021: Priorities for Outbreak Management with Socio-Economic and Public Health Impact

“…In another study by Fana et al, 2020, they reported the Sevier effect of lockdown on employment in Spain, Italy, and the UK [46]. Another study by Nivette et al, 2021, reported a significant increase in crime among urban people in 23 countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia [47]. Such long-time social erosion will also affect the total social bonding and systems.…”