A global analysis of dark matter signals from 27 dwarf spheroidal galaxies using 11 years of Fermi-LAT observations

Abstract

We perform a search for a dark matter signal in Fermi-LAT gamma-ray data from 27 Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies with spectroscopically measured J -factors. Our analysis properly includes uncertainties in J -factors and background normalisations and systematically compares results from a Bayesian and a frequentist perspective. We revisit the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Reticulum II, confirming that the purported gamma-ray excess seen in Pass 7 data is much weaker in Pass 8, independently of the statistical approach adopted. We introduce for the first time posterior predictive distributions to accurately quantify the probability of a dark matter detection from another dwarf galaxy given a tentative excess. A global analysis including all 27 dwarfs shows no indication for a signal in the τ + τ − and bb channels. We present new stringent Bayesian and frequentist upper limits on the velocity-averaged annihilation cross section as a function of the dark matter mass. The best-fit dark matter parameters associated with the Galactic Centre excess are excluded at more than 95% confidence level/posterior probability in the frequentist/Bayesian framework. However, from a Bayesian model comparison perspective, dark matter annihilation within the dwarfs is not strongly disfavoured compared to a background-only model. These results constitute the highest exposure analysis on the most complete sample of dwarfs to date.

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