A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas

Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Kebede, Abiy S.; Lázár, Attila N.; Hutton, Craig W.; Vincent, Katharine; Allan, Andrew; Chapman, Alex; Rahman, Rezaur; Ghosh, Tuhin; Mensah, Adelina

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.234

Cited by 39 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…These adaptations, and their interactions with other drivers of migration, can exhibit complex, non‐linear dynamics, and thresholds. For example, delta communities have been carefully investigated with respect to exposure, vulnerability and adaptation efforts (Suckall et al, ). These efforts have highlighted the critical role of migration as an adaptation strategy, as well as the importance of aligning planned adaptation with autonomous efforts.…”

Section: Coastal Flooding In a Dynamic Human Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

et al. 2019

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Sea-level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea-level rise involve infrastructure and land-use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea-level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high-frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision-first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science.Plain Language Summary The impacts of sea-level rise pose growing threats to coastal communities, economies, and ecosystems, and decisions made today-in areas like land-use policies, coastal development, and infrastructure investment-will affect exposure and vulnerability for generations to come. Thus, the usability of sea-level science is a pressing concern. Ensuring usability requires grappling with deep uncertainty in long-term sea-level projections, the relationship between long-term trends and the impacts of short-lived extreme events, and the ways in which the physical coast, as well as people and ecosystems along the coast, respond to increasingly frequent flooding. At the same time, it also requires more extensive and deliberate stakeholder engagement throughout the scientific process, as well as cognizance of the political economy of linking stakeholder-engaged science to action.

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Section: Coastal Flooding In a Dynamic Human Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

et al. 2019

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“…The accumulated effects of the inadequate maintenance of river valleys, changes in catchment development and disordered industrialization make rainwater flow from the catchment area to the main river much faster. There is also the problem of climate change and adaptation to it, which is noticed more and more frequently (2,18). As a result of erosion and sedimentation processes, the capacity of the main riverbeds and their tributaries is limited.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geoengineering conditions of the environmental protection facilities in the centre of the Oder River

Kołodziejczyk

Kostecki

2018

E3S Web Conf.

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The ongoing management of river valleys has had a negative impact on the effectiveness of flood protection of former floodplains. The risk of flooding and flood damage is constantly increasing. As a result of disorganized industrialization, we are dealing with the accumulation of precipitation which flows much faster from the catchment area to the main river. In turn, due to erosion and the sedimentation processes, the capacity of the main river bed and its tributaries is limited. The solution to the problem may be multidirectional flood control measures, which were designed for the Lubuskie part of the Oder River, from Nowa Sól to Milsko. They concern: the construction of a flood wall in Nowa Sól, the modernization of the flood embankments in the Nowa Sol area and reconstruction of the former floodplain in Milsko. The paper presents the geoengineering conditions of these projects.

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“…In this example, this Integrated Bayesian Adaptation model is used to simulate the effect of six plausible policy directions on household decisions. As discussed in (Suckall et al 2018) and Sect. 9.5 of this book, these six plausible adaptation policy directions (APDs) were conceptualised representing contrasting governance contexts: A.…”

Section: Household Adaptation Response To Changementioning

confidence: 91%