Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

Abstract

Sea-level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea-level rise involve infrastructure and land-use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea-level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high-frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision-first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science.Plain Language Summary The impacts of sea-level rise pose growing threats to coastal communities, economies, and ecosystems, and decisions made today-in areas like land-use policies, coastal development, and infrastructure investment-will affect exposure and vulnerability for generations to come. Thus, the usability of sea-level science is a pressing concern. Ensuring usability requires grappling with deep uncertainty in long-term sea-level projections, the relationship between long-term trends and the impacts of short-lived extreme events, and the ways in which the physical coast, as well as people and ecosystems along the coast, respond to increasingly frequent flooding. At the same time, it also requires more extensive and deliberate stakeholder engagement throughout the scientific process, as well as cognizance of the political economy of linking stakeholder-engaged science to action.

Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes

“…Complementing AFs with allowances provide a more rounded picture of impact ARTICLE and risk because AFs contain information on the expected future height of ESL events in addition to frequency. However, a complete picture of the flooding risk would also require information on exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructure 30 , but this is beyond the scope of the current study.…”

The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

“…Previous work has shown that accounting for different physics in Antarctica can result in substantially different probabilistic projections of SLR by the end of the century (Jevrejeva et al, 2019;Kopp et al, 2019).…”

A Flood Damage Allowance Framework for Coastal Protection With Deep Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise

“…Several different plausible estimates of continental‐scale AIS melt exist (e.g., Bamber & Aspinall, ; Edwards et al, ; Deconto & Pollard, ; Golledge et al, ; Levermann et al, ; Little et al, ; Little et al, ; Ritz et al, ), but there is currently not an agreed upon full range of outcomes and likelihoods necessary for risk assessment using a single SLR PDF. Recent modeling of ice sheet behavior, discussed in detail in Oppenheimer et al () and Kopp et al (), demonstrates divergent PDFs and likelihoods of a partial collapse of the AIS from different modeling approaches. An implication of this ambiguity is that the PDF of SLR in the second half of the century remains strongly dependent upon subjective assessment of potential AIS contributions.…”