A Forecasting Model on Carrying Capacity for Government's Controlling Measure Under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting Non-Recursive Autoregression Based on the Var-X Model

Abstract

This research aimed to analyze the relationship of causal factors and forecast CO 2 emissions for a 15 years period from 2020 to 2034 by applying a non-recursive autoregression vector autoregression with an exogeneous model (Non-Recursive Var-X model). The Non-Recursive Var-X model has been made available for use in long-term forecasting (2020-2034), particularly in regards to the implementation of the 'Industry 4.0' policy of the Thai government. The study found that the results of the Thai government's efforts or 'governmental power' (GP) will likely lead to levels of CO 2 emissions that exceed the country's carrying capacity as determined under its national strategic plan. The findings of this study show that CO 2 emissions are expected to have a growth rate of 27.23 percent (2020-2034), reaching 95.88 Mt CO 2 Eq by 2034. The Non-Recursive Var-X model provides a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.12% and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.25%. In this research, the Non-Recursive Var-X model was used and CO 2 emissions were forecasted to rise continuously over the established period. This rise exceeds the carrying capacity of Thailand according to the criteria set by the Thai government.

Analyzing the Impact of Causal Factors on Political Management to Determine Sustainability Policy under Environmental Law: Enriching the Covariance-based SEMxi Model

“…The main difference between the two types holds between element variables of the FAs. The confirmatory FA is the FA in which its element variable has been pre-defined for the FA (measurement variables), whereas the explanatory FA generates FA variables from measurement variable groups without variable specification (Sutthichaimethee and Ariyasajjakorn, 2020).…”

A Framework on Setting Strategies for Enhancing the Efficiency of State Power use in Thailand’s Pursuit of a Green Economy

“…Ultimately, it may not be possible to rectify the situation, as environmental systems often take many years to restore to their original state and sometimes cannot be restored at all. Additionally, the government must have a key strategy for developing the country towards a green economy that is most suitable and comprehensive, leading Thailand toward a promising future in line with sustainability goals (Sutthichaimethee, Ariyasajjakorn, 2020 Hence, an extensive review of research work both within the country and abroad was conducted and found that Thailand lacks research from the perspective of the research problem discussed. The few research efforts conducted within the country often take a narrow viewpoint on specific aspects, which may not contribute effectively to the formulation of national strategies.…”