A Dynamic Model of Domestic Political Conflict Process

Karmeshu,; Jain, Vishal; Mahajan, Aseem

doi:10.1177/0022002790034002004

Cited by 25 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…12. For the short run, our model provides microfoundations for cycles of repression and dissent as suggested by Jackson et al (1978), Karmeshu and Mahajan (1990), and Francisco (1995). The clockwise oscillation that appears in Figure 4b around point 1 for small benefits of protest, and the counterclockwise oscillation that appears in Figure 4a around point 1 for large benefits of protest, fits the predator-prey dynamics which Tsebelis and Sprague (1989) suggest, who argue that both clockwise and counterclockwise dynamics are possible.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Preemptive Repression: Deterrence, Backfiring, Iron Fists, and Velvet Gloves

Jaegher

Hoyer

2018

Journal of Conflict Resolution

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We present a game-theoretic model of the repression-dissent nexus, focusing on preemptive repression. A small group of instigating dissidents triggers a protest if each dissident participates. The dissidents face random checks by security forces, and when an individual dissident is caught while preparing to participate, he or she is prevented from doing so. Each dissident can invest in countermeasures, which make checks ineffective. For large benefits of protest, higher preemptive repression in the form of a higher number of checks has a deterrence effect and makes dissidents less prone to invest in countermeasures, decreasing the probability of protest. For small benefits of protest, higher preemptive repression instead has a backfiring effect. Both myopic and farsighted governments avoid the backfiring effect by setting low levels of preemptive repression (velvet-glove strategy). However, only a farsighted government is able to exploit the deterrence effect by maintaining a high level of preemptive repression (iron-fist strategy).

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Preemptive Repression: Deterrence, Backfiring, Iron Fists, and Velvet Gloves

Jaegher

Hoyer

2018

Journal of Conflict Resolution

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this paper, we have attempted to enlist the possibilities of evolution of superintelligence, based on the extant knowledge available in the literature. These possibilities range from a simplistic evolution of superintelligence as a new technology following S-shaped curve (Bass, 1969), to hostile strategies followed by adversaries (Karmeshu et al , 1990). Our empirical analysis results from the manufacturing, communication and energy sectors suggesting that the technology diffusion model fits well with the data of robotics, telecom and solar installations till date.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Different variants of the above models can be used to model the conflicting situations in other types of scenarios. For example, Karmeshu et al (1990) modeled the time-based behavior of domestic political hostility between the hostile (challenger) and ruling (regime) groups. They find the conditions under which the conflict will either stabilize or evolve over time.…”

Section: Dynamic Models Of the Possible Evolution Of Artificial Superintelligencementioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution and control of artificial superintelligence (ASI): a management perspective

Narain

Swami

Srivastava³

et al. 2019

JAMR

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to address both the evolutionary and control aspects associated with the management of artificial superintelligence. Through empirical analysis, the authors examine the diffusion pattern of those high technologies that can be considered as forerunners to the adoption of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Design/methodology/approach The evolutionary perspective is divided into three parts, based on major developments in this area, namely, robotics, automation and artificial intelligence (AI). The authors then provide several dynamic models of the possible future evolution of superintelligence. These include diffusion modeling, predator–prey models and hostility models. The problem of control in superintelligence is reviewed next, where the authors discuss Asimov’s Laws and IEEE initiative. The authors also provide an empirical analysis of the application of diffusion modeling to three technologies from the industries of manufacturing, communication and energy, which can be considered as potential precursors to the evolution of the field of ASI. The authors conclude with a case study illustrating emerging solutions in the form of long-term social experiments to address the problem of control in superintelligence. Findings The results from the empirical analysis of the manufacturing, communication and energy sectors suggest that the technology diffusion model fits well with the data of robotics, telecom and solar installations till date. The results suggest a gradual diffusion process, like any other high technology. Thus, there appears to be no threat of “existential catastrophe” (Bostrom, 2014). The case study indicates that any future threat can be pre-empted by some long-term social measures. Originality/value This paper contributes to the emerging stream of artificial superintelligence. As humanity comes closer to grappling with the important question of the management and control of this technology for the future, it is important that modeling efforts be made to understand the extant perspective of the development of the high-technology diffusion. Presently, there are relatively few such efforts available in the literature.

show abstract

“…In both of these cases, the evolution of a resource (respectively, manpower and military expenditure) is described using equations which incorporate both internal and external influences. This general approachclosely related to the Lotka-Volterra model of predator-prey interactionhas since been refined and adapted to apply to a number of different types of conflict [3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A spatial model for conflict incorporating within- and between-actor effects

Knipl

Davies

Baudains

2017

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The application of ecological models to human conflict scenarios has given rise to a number of models which describe antagonistic relationships between adversaries. Recent work demonstrates that the spatial disaggregation of such models is not only well-motivated but also gives rise to interesting dynamic behaviour, particularly with respect to the spatial distribution of resources. One feature which is largely absent from previous models, however, is the ability of an adversary to coordinate activity across its various locations. Most immediately, this corresponds to the notion of 'support' -the reallocation of resources from one site to another according to need -which plays an important role in real-world conflict. In this paper, we generalise a spatiallydisaggregated form of the classic Richardson model of conflict escalation by adding a cross-location interaction term for the within-adversary dynamics at each location. We explore the model analytically, giving conditions for the stability of the balanced equilibrium state. We then also carry out a number of numerical simulations which correspond to stylised real-world conflict scenarios. Potential further applications of the model, and its implications for policy, are then discussed.

show abstract

A Dynamic Model of Domestic Political Conflict Process

Cited by 25 publications

References 12 publications

Preemptive Repression: Deterrence, Backfiring, Iron Fists, and Velvet Gloves

Preemptive Repression: Deterrence, Backfiring, Iron Fists, and Velvet Gloves

Evolution and control of artificial superintelligence (ASI): a management perspective

A spatial model for conflict incorporating within- and between-actor effects

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About