A DMDU Guidebook for Transportation Planning Under a Changing Climate

Abstract

The effects of climate-related natural hazards pose a significant threat to sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region and in particular its transportation sector. Risk Management provides an appropriate framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of climate change and other climate-related natural hazards on transportation systems and choosing actions to enhance their resilience. However, analysts and policymakers involved in transportation planning, policy, and investment face significant challenges in managing the risks triggered by the effects of climate change. Climate change impacts the lifespan of roads, airports, and railroads as they have time horizons that surpass 40 years, thus making it harder (if not impossible) to forecast with confidence all relevant future events that will affect such infrastructure. In addition, the climate has already changed, so the return frequency of storms, for example, and other extreme events may now be different than suggested by the historical record in ways that are not always currently well understood. Implementing Risk Management under conditions of such uncertainty can prove difficult. Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) enables Risk Management under conditions of Deep Uncertainty, that is when risks cannot confidently be quantified. This guidebook is aligned with the Disaster and Climate Change Risk Assessment Methodology for IDB projects (IDB 2018) and introduces and provides guidance on applying methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) to transportation planning. It presents the methodological steps that are necessary for the implementation of DMDU methodologies and reviews several such methods, including scenario planning, Adaptive Pathways, and robust decision making (RDM). This review is geared towards supporting the incorporation of DMDU methods into IDBs transportation sector funding and planning processes.

Developing Transportation Resilience Adaptively to Climate Change

“…DMDU is an evolving research area with promise for applications in transportation planning and decision making. DMDU researchers and practitioners recently offered a guidebook presenting methodological steps for implementing DMDU methodologies in transportation, including scenario planning, adaptive pathways, and robust decision making (RDM) ( 38 ). According to the guidebook, deep uncertainty occurs when parties coming to a decision do not know or do not agree on the likelihood of alternative futures or how actions are related to consequences.…”

“…Scenarios to support the development of robust and flexible strategies address deep uncertainty ( 19, 38 ).…”

“…Figure 8. The robust decision-making process infuses robustness in planning, decision making, and system outcomes(38).…”

Cap. 13. Transporte. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima.

“…Están surgiendo marcos para ayudar a los responsables de la toma de decisiones a incorporar la incertidumbre climática a la planificación de infraestructuras 86 . Utilizando los datos disponibles y las herramientas proporcionadas por los avances tecnológicos en otros sectores, como informática, sensores, cibertecnología y estadística, agencias públicas y compañías privadas están creando una mayor conciencia y, en muchos casos, tomando medidas para abordar la incertidumbre provocada por el cambio climático sobre el uso y la vida útil previstos de los sistemas de transporte y sobre el diseño, la construcción, las operaciones y el mantenimiento de infraestructuras relacionadas con el transporte (Figura 13.3).…”

“…Aunque la literatura revisada por expertos apoya ampliamente la noción de que el sector del transporte se enfrenta a una variedad de cambios emergentes y potencialmente perturbadores 80 , existen pocas fuentes revisadas por expertos que vinculen explícitamente la coordinación de esos desafíos (y soluciones) a la acción climática. La mejor demostración de la aceleración de la toma de decisiones informadas sobre el cambio climático en el sector del transporte es la reciente proliferación de marcos y herramientas para este fin 27,86 , pero la literatura revisada por expertos también respalda esta afirmación 99 . Una amplia literatura no oficial revisada por expertos respalda el debate sobre los desafíos emergentes de la mano de obra del transporte 112 y la correspondiente necesidad de mejorar las cualificaciones y diversificar la demografía de los trabajadores del transporte para abordar estos desafíos.…”