A Definition of Rapid Weakening for Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

Ma, Zhanhong; Fei, Jianfang; Huang, Xiaogang

doi:10.1029/2019gl085090

Cited by 18 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…Ma et al. (2019) found almost constant 24 hr weakening rate above an initial intensity of Category 3 or higher. Their definition of weakening includes fluctuations above CAT 3 (e.g., from CAT 4 to 3 within 24 hr) and is thus different, as it does not consider the final decay to CAT 1 as we explicitly consider here.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The weakening stage following the LMI has received much less attention (Colomb et al., 2019; Ma et al., 2019; Wood & Ritchie, 2015). This is somewhat surprising and anomalous since the weakening phase lasts for a similar length of time as intensification and is also more likely to occur close to land than over the open ocean and thus is important to understanding impact.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Shortening of the Life Cycle of Major Tropical Cyclones

Wang

Rashid

Throp

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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In this study a comprehensive picture of the changing intensity life cycle of major (Category 3 and higher) tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. Over the past decades, the lifetime maximum intensity has increased, but there has also been a significant decrease in duration of time spent at intensities greater than Category 1. These compensating effects have maintained a stable global mean‐accumulated cyclone energy of individual major TCs. The global mean duration of major TCs has shortened by about 1 day from 1982 to 2018. There has been both faster intensification (Categories 1 to 3) and weakening (Categories 3 to 1) by about 40%. The probabilities of rapid intensification and rapid weakening have both risen in the period 2000–2018 compared to 1982–1999. A statistically significant anticorrelation is found between the lifetime maximum intensity and the following duration of the final weakening. This suggests an element of self‐regulation of TC life cycles.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Shortening of the Life Cycle of Major Tropical Cyclones

Wang

Rashid

Throp

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…By comparison, prior research has shown that RW events typically occur when TCs entrain dry air (Wood & Ritchie, 2015) or encounter increased VWS (Ma et al, 2019). However, there are slight increases in 700‐ to 500‐hPa RH and slight decreases in 850‐ to 200‐hPa VWS over the significant region from 1982–2000 to 2001–2019 (Figures 4c and 4d).…”

Section: Spatial Changesmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…There are also significant increasing trends for all four data sets for the period of 1982–2019, indicating consistency among the different best tracks. Several prior studies have used the JTWC data set to investigate TC characteristics related to RW over the WNP (Liang et al, 2018; Ma et al, 2019). Given the similar interannual trends between all four TC data sets as well as the historical precedence for using JTWC, we choose to use JTWC data in this study as well.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have also examined composites of RW events by looking at large numbers of TCs and have found that RW cases are more likely to occur when TCs encounter cooler SSTs, stronger SST gradients, greater vertical wind shear (VWS), increased dry air entrainment, and interactions with a monsoon gyre (Liang et al, 2018; Ma et al, 2019; Wood & Ritchie, 2015). Note that the aforementioned influences of the environmental factors on RW occurrence have been investigated on a synoptic scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent Increase in Tropical Cyclone Weakening Rates Over the Western North Pacific

Song

Klotzbach

Duan

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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This study investigates annual mean changes in 24-h weakening rates of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) and annual number of rapid weakening (RW) events from 1982 to 2019. There is a significant increasing trend in the mean weakening rate, which correlates with a significant increase in RW number. Because stronger TCs are more likely to experience greater weakening rates and thus undergo RW, the increase in the ratio of intense TCs to all TCs can cause an increase in the weakening rate and RW frequency. Furthermore, the weakening rate and the RW number significantly increase over the region of 25°N-35°N, 120°E-150°E from 1982-2000 to 2001-2019. Over this region, there are stronger sea surface temperature gradients in more recent years, likely contributing to a higher probability of TCs undergoing RW. Other environmental variables do not exhibit significant changes. Our study highlights inhomogeneous Pacific warming that may favor RW of TCs. Plain Language Summary Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating global natural disasters, posing a significant threat to various coastal regions. Previous research has reported that ocean warming can induce increases in TC intensification rates. Our study finds significant increases in the TC weakening rate and the number of rapid weakening events over the western North Pacific from 1982 to 2019. These increases are likely driven by two factors. First, since a stronger TC usually exhibits a larger weakening rate and a higher probability of experiencing rapid weakening, the increasing ratio of stronger TCs to the total number of TCs can induce an increasing weakening rate and an increasing rapid weakening number. Second, there are significant increases in both the weakening rate and the number of TCs undergoing rapid weakening over the region of 25°N-35°N and 120°E-150°E from 1982-2000 to 2001-2019, where sea surface temperature gradients have significantly increased as a result of nonuniform ocean warming. Although other factors, such as lower sea surface temperatures, drier air, and stronger vertical wind shear can also induce rapid weakening, we find that these processes have likely had a minor impact on observed long-term trends in the rapid weakening number over the western North Pacific.

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Recent shortening of the mature tropical cyclone stage over the western North Pacific

Song,

Klotzbach,

Jiang

et al. 2024

Atmospheric Science Letters

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This study investigates long‐term trends related to the mature stage duration of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during June–November between 1982 and 2021. There is a significant shortening in the mean duration of the WNP mature TC stage, which is defined as the period when a TC is within 5 kt of its lifetime maximum intensity. This shortening is induced by a significant (weak) poleward migration in the starting (ending) location of the WNP mature TC stage, which can be further explained by changes in environmental conditions. From 1982 to 2021, there have been significant increases in maximum potential intensity and 700–500‐hPa relative humidity over most of the WNP, which has broadly expanded the TC‐favorable area poleward. Consequently, WNP TCs can start their mature stages and reach their lifetime maximum intensities at higher latitudes. By contrast, there are only weak changes in 850‐hPa relative vorticity and 850–200‐hPa vertical wind shear (VWS). Given the dominant role of VWS in modulating the TC weakening rate, the TC‐suppressive area over the subtropical WNP has shown lesser changes, thus leading to insignificant changes in the ending location of the mature TC stage.

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A Definition of Rapid Weakening for Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

Cited by 18 publications

References 35 publications

A Shortening of the Life Cycle of Major Tropical Cyclones

A Shortening of the Life Cycle of Major Tropical Cyclones

Recent Increase in Tropical Cyclone Weakening Rates Over the Western North Pacific

Recent shortening of the mature tropical cyclone stage over the western North Pacific

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