A Shortening of the Life Cycle of Major Tropical Cyclones

Wang, Siyang; Rashid, Towhida; Throp, H.; Toumi, Ralf

doi:10.1029/2020gl088589

Cited by 28 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…During 1966-2018, in the CMA data, although there is no significant trend in the annual frequency of landfalls, there are significant increasing tendencies in τ of 0.26 h yr −1 (p < 0.01) for 24-h landfalls (Figure 1A) and 0.20 h yr −1 (p < 0.01) for 12-h landfalls (Figure 1B). These τ trends become 0.24 h yr −1 (p 0.02) and 0.19 h yr −1 (p 0.01), when using a weighted linear regression model (Wang et al, 2020) in which annual τ is weighted by the corresponding landfall frequency. There are also significant increasing τ trends in the JTWC data, which show similar rates to those in the CMA data.…”

Section: Increasing Trend In Decay Timescalementioning

confidence: 99%

Slowdown in the Decay of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall on the Asian Continent

et al. 2021

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This study finds an increasing trend in the decay timescale (τ) of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TCs) making landfall on the Asian continent from 1966–2018. Statistical analysis of individual landfalling TCs shows that τ is significantly positively linked to soil wetness, 850-hPa relative vorticity and 200-hPa divergence, whereas it is weakly correlated with 700–500-hPa relative humidity and 850–200-hPa vertical wind shear. For TCs hitting southeastern China, the observed increasing τ is likely caused by enhanced 850-hPa vorticity and 200-hPa divergence. For TCs hitting southern China, increasing τ is likely driven by increased 850-hPa vorticity. By comparison, there are no significant trends in environmental variables over the eastern Indo-China Peninsula, and τ has not significantly changed in this region. Our results imply that the increasing τ of WNP landfalling TCs on the Asian continent are more likely caused by changes in dynamic variables than changes in thermodynamic variables.

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Section: Increasing Trend In Decay Timescalementioning

confidence: 99%

Slowdown in the Decay of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall on the Asian Continent

et al. 2021

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“…The best track records are considered to be globally complete only since 1982 when all ocean basins with TC activities were routinely monitored by satellites 8 . It is found with the best track that the annual mean LMI of global TCs (LMI at least category 1) increases significantly by 2.0 m s −1 per decade for 1982–2009 8 , and 1.5 m s −1 per decade for 1982–2019 9 for major TCs (LMI at least category 3), respectively. The proportion of the major TCs has also been found increasing significantly for 1979–2017 10 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes

Wang

Toumi

2021

Sci Rep

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It has been challenging to detect trends of tropical cyclone (TC) properties due to temporal heterogeneities and short duration of the direct observations. TCs impact the ocean surface temperature by creating cold wakes as a “fingerprint”. Here we infer changes of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), size and integrated kinetic energy from the cold wakes for the period 1982–2019. We find a globally enhanced local cold wake amplitude 3 days after the LMI of − 0.12 ± 0.04 °C per decade whereas the cold wake size does not show any significant change. Multivariate regression models based on the observed ocean cooling, the TC translation speed and the ocean mixed layer depth are applied to infer LMI and TC size. The inferred annual mean global LMI has increased by 1.0 ± 0.7 m s−1 per decade. This inferred trend is between that found for two directly observed data sets. However, the TC size and the TC destructive potential measured by the integrated kinetic energy, have not altered significantly. This analysis provides new independent and indirect evidence of recent TC LMI increases, but a stable size and integrated kinetic energy.

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“…The lack of a statistically significant trend of actual landfall (+1±2 cyclones per decade globally) may be due to the rapid intensity reduction prior to and during landfall. Major tropical cyclones have decayed more rapidly post LMI (25). This could stabilize the annual frequency of landfall defined by a fixed intensity threshold.…”

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confidence: 99%

Recent migration of tropical cyclones toward coasts

Wang

Toumi

2021

Science

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Poleward migrations of tropical cyclones have been observed globally, but their impact on coastal areas remains unclear. We investigated the change in global tropical cyclone activity in coastal regions over the period 1982–2018. We found that the distance of tropical cyclone maximum intensity to land has decreased by about 30 kilometers per decade, and that the annual frequency of global tropical cyclones increases with proximity to land by about two additional cyclones per decade. Trend analysis reveals a robust migration of tropical cyclone activity toward coasts, concurrent with poleward migration of cyclone locations as well as a statistically significant westward shift. This zonal shift of tropical cyclone tracks may be mainly driven by global zonal changes in environmental steering flow.

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A Shortening of the Life Cycle of Major Tropical Cyclones

Cited by 28 publications

References 32 publications

Slowdown in the Decay of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall on the Asian Continent

Slowdown in the Decay of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall on the Asian Continent

Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes

Recent migration of tropical cyclones toward coasts

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