A Data-Driven Assessment of the Electricity Demand-the Case of Albania

Abstract

The Albanian power system has long benefited from hydro-based generation flexibility. However, the country is subject to hydrologic alteration and a lack of generation diversity. This paper investigates the system-wide and regional electricity demand based on a data-driven approach. Besides, the paper assesses electricity consumption elasticity to temperature. Historical data highlights that electricity self-sufficiency has only been accomplished in 3 out of the last 10 years. On the one hand, the electricity consumption behavior is highly correlated (up to 72.68%) with temperature. On the other hand, the yearly regional electricity demand is related more to population numbers rather than purchasing power or household appliances. Although, such observation is affected by high regional (North part) distribution system losses. The comfort region ranges from 20.3-24.3°C, while the heating and cooling demand saturate at 3 and 32°C, respectively. Lastly, the largest values for the rate of demand increase to the temperature on the heating and cooling region are 29 MWh/°C and 21 MWh/°C, each.