A COVID-19 Epidemic Model Predicting the Effectiveness of Vaccination in the US

Webb, Glenn

doi:10.3390/idr13030062

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Haftalık insidans ve kümülatif birinci doz aşı kapsayıcılık hızları parametrik test koşullarını sağlamadığından Spearman korelasyon analizi yapılmıştır. Bulgular: [10][11][12][13][14][15][16] Temmuz 2021 haftasında illere göre Covid-19 vaka insidansı ile birinci doz aşı kapsayıcılığı arasında korelasyon katsayısı rho=-0.314 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Hesaplanan korelasyon negatif yönlü ve zayıf bir korelasyon olup, istatistiksel olarak da anlamlıdır (p<0.01).…”

Section: öZunclassified

The evaluation of the correlation between the first dose Covid-19 vaccine coverage rate and weekly Covid-19 incidence in the cities in Turkey

ERDAL

Şaşmaz

2022

Türkiye Halk Sağlığı Dergisi

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Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the correlation between the first dose vaccine coverage rates of the Covid-19 vaccination and weekly case incidences published by the Ministry of Health periodically, open to public. Methods: Data analyzes of the weekly Covid-19 incidence and the first dose Covid-19 vaccine coverage rate over the age of 18 of provinces, published by the Ministry of Health on the website, were done on computer. The first incidence data were obtained in the week 10-16 July, the last data in the week 04-10 September. As the weekly incidence and cumulative first dose vaccine coverage rates did not suitable for the use of parametric tests conditions, Spearman correlation analysis was performed. Results: In the week 10-16 July, the correlation coefficient between the incidence of Covid-19 cases of provinces and first dose vaccine coverage was calculated as rho=-0.314. The calculated correlation is a negative and weak correlation, and it is statistically significant (p

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Section: öZunclassified

The evaluation of the correlation between the first dose Covid-19 vaccine coverage rate and weekly Covid-19 incidence in the cities in Turkey

ERDAL

Şaşmaz

2022

Türkiye Halk Sağlığı Dergisi

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“…Expansion must be rapid and achieve high coverage (at least 70%) while maintaining social distancing measures during deployment. The work [16] proposes a model of the COVID-19 epidemic to predict the effectiveness of vaccination in the United States. The model analyzes the effectiveness of vaccination in terms of vaccination effectiveness, vaccination planning, and relaxation of social measures that reduce disease transmission.…”

Section: Current Research Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Barriers of COVID-19 vaccination in Ukraine during the war: the simulation study using ARIMA model

Chumachenko

Kirinovych

et al. 2022

reks

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The COVID-19 pandemic has become a challenge to public health systems worldwide. As of June 2022, more than 545 million cases have been registered worldwide, more than 6.34 million of which have died. The gratuitous and bloody war launched by Russia in Ukraine has affected the public health system, including disruptions to COVID-19 vaccination plans. The use of simulation models to estimate the necessary coverage of COVID-19 vaccination in Ukraine will make it possible to rapidly change the policy to combat the pandemic in the wartime. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 vaccination model in Ukraine and to study the impact of war on this process. The study is multidisciplinary and includes a sociological study of the attitude of the population of Ukraine toward COVID-19 vaccination before the escalation of the war, the modeling of the vaccine campaign, forecasting the required number of doses administered after the start of the war, epidemiological analysis of the simulation results. This research targeted the COVID-19 epidemic process during the war. The research subjects are the methods and models of epidemic process simulation based on statistical machine learning. Sociological analysis methods were applied to achieve this goal, and an ARIMA model was developed to assess COVID-19 vaccination coverage As a result of the study, the population of Ukraine was clustered in attitude to COVID-19 vaccination. As a result of a sociological study of 437 donors and 797 medical workers, four classes were distinguished: supporters, loyalists, conformists, and skeptics. An ARIMA model was built to simulate the daily coverage of COVID-19 vaccinations. A retrospective forecast verified the model's accuracy for the period 01/25/22 - 02/23/22 in Ukraine. The forecast accuracy for 30 days was 98.79%. The model was applied to estimate the required vaccination coverage in Ukraine for the period 02/24/22 – 03/25/22. Conclusions. A multidisciplinary study made it possible to assess the adherence of the population of Ukraine to COVID-19 vaccination and develop an ARIMA model to assess the necessary COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Ukraine. The model developed is highly accurate and can be used by public health agencies to adjust vaccine policies in wartime. Given the barriers to vaccination acceptance, despite the hostilities, it is necessary to continue to perform awareness-raising work in the media, covering not only the events of the war but also setting the population on the need to receive the first and second doses of the COVID-19 vaccine for previously unvaccinated people, and a booster dose for those who have previously received two doses of the vaccine, involving opinion leaders in such works.

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“…Some people would rather receive the vaccination after each season, such as influenza. Moreover, the current COVID-19 seems to resemble seasonal influenza, where people may require vaccination because of the decreasing effects of protection after a specific amount of time [1] , [2] , [3] , [4] , [5] , [6] , [7] . Thus, the entire human population can be split into two groups when vaccination becomes voluntary provaccination and antivaccination groups

meaning getting vaccinated and not getting vaccinated respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the social dilemma of an epidemic model with provaccination and antivaccination groups: An evolutionary approach

Khan

Tanimoto

2023

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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A COVID-19 Epidemic Model Predicting the Effectiveness of Vaccination in the US

Cited by 17 publications

References 79 publications

The evaluation of the correlation between the first dose Covid-19 vaccine coverage rate and weekly Covid-19 incidence in the cities in Turkey

The evaluation of the correlation between the first dose Covid-19 vaccine coverage rate and weekly Covid-19 incidence in the cities in Turkey

Barriers of COVID-19 vaccination in Ukraine during the war: the simulation study using ARIMA model

Investigating the social dilemma of an epidemic model with provaccination and antivaccination groups: An evolutionary approach

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