A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections

Chen, Liang; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.

doi:10.1002/2013jd021190

Cited by 188 publications

(131 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…Recently, based on CMIP5 climate models, precipitation was generally projected to increase in China by the end of the 21st century (Wang and Chen, 2014). Moreover, the most significant increases were projected to occur over the Tibetan Plateau and East China in summer, indicating the change in monsoonal circulation in the future (Chen and Frauenfeld, 2014). Precipitation is the main source of increased moisture, and ET o , as a main source of atmospheric water demand, also plays an important role in the hydrologic budget.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The AI, as the ratio between ET o and P (Budyko, 1974;Middleton and Thomas, 1992), is a widely used indicator of regional moisture conditions, and high values of the index indicate higher aridity.…”

Section: Meteorological Data and Model Performance Matricmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Surface aridity is sensitive to rising temperatures, and the effects of increased temperatures on aridity will be exacerbated if precipitation decreases (McCabe and Wolock, 2002). Overall, surface aridity is controlled by the balance between precipitation, P (atmospheric supply), and reference evapotranspiration, ET o (atmospheric demand) (Budyko, 1974;Middleton and Thomas, 1992;Wu et al, 2006;Sherwood and Fu, 2014). ET o is an expression of the evaporative power of the atmosphere at a specific location and time of year (Allen et al, 1998), and it is an important indicator of aridity besides precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Shi et al, 2007;Gu et al, 2012;Wang et al, 2013;Chen and Frauenfeld, 2014;Wang and Chen, 2014;Xing et al, 2014;Xu et al, 2014). However, most studies on future ET o have been conducted at local area or basin, thus the regional differences and pattern of future changes in evapotranspiration have been poorly understood over China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid‐21st century

Yin

et al. 2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The effects of aridity on ecosystems and water cycles are pronounced and have received considerable attention. However, aridity changes due to future warming and its regional variability over China remain uncertain. This paper aims to identify the spatiotemporal variations in aridity and its key influencing factors over China in the mid-21st century based on five general circulation models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. An aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) to precipitation (P), was calculated. We show that the GCM ensemble means are able to reproduce the variation of aridity during the baseline period. Generally, ET o anomalies are consistently positive. Other than for the RCP2.6 low-emission scenario, precipitation and aridity are both projected to increase. There are pronounced regional differences in aridity changes; i.e. wetter across most of western China and drier across most of eastern China in the mid-21st century. Negative AI anomalies in western China can be attributed mainly to the projected increase in precipitation. In eastern China, the AI was higher despite positive precipitation anomalies, due mainly to the greater effect of climate change on increasing atmospheric moisture demand. This suggests that evapotranspiration demand should be incorporated into aridity changes under future warming.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Meteorological Data and Model Performance Matricmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid‐21st century

Yin

et al. 2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…This is consistent with Song and Zhou (2014), who examined the simulation of the EASM in CMIP3 and CMIP5 atmosphere-only GCMs and found no evidence for a relationship between model fidelity and resolution (ranging from ∼ 22-500 km). In their analysis of CMIP5 coupled models, Chen and Frauenfeld (2014) also concluded that horizontal resolution did not influence climatological precipitation and IAV over China. On the other hand, Li et al (2015) performed a series of experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) at resolutions of T42 (310 km at the equator), T106 (125 km) and T266 (50 km).…”

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confidence: 99%

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ∼ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

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Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

2015

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This study assesses present-day and future precipitation changes over China by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.5.1. The WRF model was driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with the Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component (GFDL-ESM2G) output over China at the resolution of 30 km for the present day and near future (2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results demonstrate that with improved resolution and better representation of finer-scale physical process, dynamical downscaling adds value to the regional precipitation simulation. WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of total precipitation and extreme precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer magnitude. It is able to successfully eliminate the artificial precipitation maximum area simulated by GFDL-ESM2G over the west of the Sichuan Basin, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in both summer and winter. Besides, the regional annual cycle and frequencies of precipitation intensity are also well depicted by WRF. In the future projections, under the RCP4.5 scenario, both models project that summer precipitation over most parts of China will increase, especially in western and northern China, and that precipitation over some southern regions is projected to decrease. The projected increase of future extreme precipitation makes great contributions to the total precipitation increase. In southern regions, the projected larger extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with fewer extreme precipitation frequencies suggest that future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to increase in these regions.

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A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections

Cited by 188 publications

References 97 publications

Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid‐21st century

Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid‐21st century

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

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