A Comparison of the Qualitative Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Quantitative Frequency Ratio Techniques in Predicting Forest Fire-Prone Areas in Bhutan Using GIS

Abstract

Forest fire is an environmental disaster that poses immense threat to public safety, infrastructure, and biodiversity. Therefore, it is essential to have a rapid and robust method to produce reliable forest fire maps, especially in a data-poor country or region. In this study, the knowledge-based qualitative Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the statistical-based quantitative Frequency Ratio (FR) techniques were utilized to model forest fire-prone areas in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan. Seven forest fire conditioning factors were used: land-use land cover, distance from human settlement, distance from road, distance from international border, aspect, elevation, and slope. The fire-prone maps generated by both models were validated using the Area Under Curve assessment method. The FR-based model yielded a fire-prone map with higher accuracy (87% success rate; 82% prediction rate) than the AHP-based model (71% success rate; 63% prediction rate). However, both the models showed almost similar extent of ‘very high’ prone areas in Bhutan, which corresponded to coniferous-dominated areas, lower elevations, steeper slopes, and areas close to human settlements, roads, and the southern international border. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire points were overlaid on the model generated maps to assess their reliability in predicting forest fires. They were found to be not reliable in Bhutan, as most of them overlapped with fire-prone classes, such as ‘moderate’, ‘low’, and ‘very low’. The fire-prone map derived from the FR model will assist Bhutan’s Department of Forests and Park Services to update its current National Forest Fire Management Strategy.

Modeling Distribution and Habitat Suitability for the Snow Leopard in Bhutan

“…About half of the country (51.44%) is designated as a protected areas network, which includes five national parks, four wildlife sanctuaries, one strict nature reserve, and eight biological corridors (Lham et al, 2018). Bhutan is predominantly a mountainous country with rugged terrain and deep river valleys (Tshering et al, 2020;Lham et al, 2021). Owing to an elevation gradient from 97 m a.s.l.…”

“…in the south to 7,750 m a.s.l. in the north (Tshering et al, 2020), Bhutan has high floral and faunal diversities (Tempa et al, 2019). The latter comprises 129 mammalian species, including top predators such as the tiger (Panthera tigris), the common leopard (Panthera pardus), the dhole (Cuon alpinus), and the snow leopard [National Biodiversity Centre (NBC), 2017; Thinley et al, 2018].…”

Conserving an Endangered Canid: Assessing Distribution, Habitat Protection, and Connectivity for the Dhole (Cuon alpinus) in Bhutan

“…in the southern foothills to 7,750 m a.s.l. in the greater Himalayas near the Chinese border (Tshering et al, 2020).…”

Understanding Human–Canid Conflict and Coexistence: Socioeconomic Correlates Underlying Local Attitude and Support Toward the Endangered Dhole (Cuon alpinus) in Bhutan

“…The majority of Bhutanese are Buddhists (80%) with the remaining comprising Hindus, Christians, and other faiths (Thinley et al, 2019). The general topography of the country is steep and rugged (Tshering et al, 2020), resulting in scattered rural settlements housing the majority (62.2 %) of 735,553 people [National Statistics Bureau (NSB), 2017] in the country. Agro-pastoralists subsisting on agricultural farming and livestock rearing (Tshering and Thinley, 2017) occupy areas below 3,500 m. Pastoralists raising yak occupy areas above 3,500 m (Thinley et al, 2017).…”