A comparison of rolling averages versus discrete time epochs for assessing the worst-case scenario locomotor demands of professional soccer match-play

Abstract

Objectives: To compare fixed epochs (FIXED) and rolling averages (ROLL) for quantifying worst-case scenario ('peak') running demands during professional soccer match-play, whilst assessing contextual influences.Design: Descriptive, observational.Methods: Twenty-five outfield players from an English Championship soccer club wore 10-Hz microelectromechanical systems during 28 matches. Relative total and high-speed (>5.5 m•s -1 ) distances were averaged over fixed and rolling 60-s to 600-s epochs. Linear mixed models compared FIXED versus ROLL and assessed the influence of epoch length, playing position, starting status, match result, location, formation, and time-of-day.Results: Irrespective of playing position or epoch duration, FIXED underestimated ROLL for total (~7-10%) and high-speed (~12-25%) distance. In ROLL, worst-case scenario relative total and high-speed distances reduced from 190.1±20.4 m•min -1 and 59.5±23.0 m•min -1 in the 60-s epoch, to 120.9±13.1 m•min -1 and 14.2±6.5 m•min -1 in the 600-s epoch, respectively. Worst-case scenario total distance was higher for midfielders (~9-16 m•min -1 ) and defenders (~3-10 m•min -1 ) compared with attackers. In general, starters experienced higher worst-case scenario total distance than substitutes (~3.6-8.5 m•min -1 ), but lower worst-case scenario high-speed running over 300-s (~3 m•min -1 ). Greater worst-case scenario total and high-speed distances were elicited during wins (~7.3-11.2 m•min -1 and ~2.7-7.9 m•min -1 , respectively) and losses (~2.7-5.7 m•min -1 and ~1.4-2.2 m•min -1 , respectively) versus draws, whilst time-of-day and playing formation influenced worst-case scenario high-speed distances only.Conclusions: These data indicate an underestimation of worst-case scenario running demands in FIXED versus ROLL over 60-s to 600-s epochs while highlighting situational influences. Such information facilitates training specificity by enabling sessions to be targeted at the most demanding periods of competition.

The first, second, and third most demanding passages of play in professional soccer: a longitudinal study

“…This finding reveals that the first MDP cannot be considered as a ‘unique’ period in terms of intensity since the second and third passages are similar to the first one. This may be explained by the fact that the intensity in distance covered per minute decreases in longer passages [ 10 , 12 , 14 , 16 ] because significant differences between the first, second, and third passages were always observed in 1 minute. In consequence, it is important to consider not only the magnitude (e.g., distance covered per minute) of the peak intensity periods [ 10 , 12 , 14 , 23 , 24 ] but also the amount of passages (i.e., the number of passages at peak intensity) when analysing the MDP of play.…”

“…Currently, there is relatively little evidence published on the MDP in professional soccer. The investigations which are available within the literature show that: i) the MDP are specific periods in which the players are exposed to the greatest physical demands [ 10 , 13 , 14 ]; ii) positional differences exist in different variables of the MDP; iii) the longer the duration of the MDP, the lower the intensity [ 10 , 12 , 16 , 17 ]; and, iv) differences may exist based on contextual variables such as match half [ 18 ].…”

Sensitivity, reliability and construct validity of GPS and accelerometers for quantifying peak periods of rugby competition

“…Pre-defined epoch analyses on average underestimated relative distances covered by~11% and high-speed running by up to~20% compared to rolling epoch analyses, with the greatest underestimations occurring using the 60 second epoch (95% confidence interval, high-speed running: -6.05 to -4.70 m.min -1 , relative distance: -18.45 to -16.43 m.min -1 ) [33]. Similarly in English Championship soccer matches, pre-defined epoch analyses of 60-600 seconds underestimated peak movement intensities of competition when compared to rolling epoch analyses for both total distance (*7-10%) and high-speed (*12-25%) distance, irrespective of playing position [34]. Therefore, it is recommended that researchers and practitioners use rolling/moving time period analyses when trying to accurately identify and quantify the peak periods of football competition [32].…”

“…Despite the majority of team-sport competition being spent at submaximal intensity, high-intensity activities are often aligned with key events that determine match outcome [ 30 , 31 ], signifying the importance of physically conditioning athletes for these intense periods of match-play. The most intense or peak periods of football competition do not often fall completely within a pre-defined period of time and therefore these methods underestimate the most intense periods of match-play and overestimate subsequent periods of activity [ 32 – 34 ]. During elite soccer competition the peak periods of high-velocity running distance were identified using either pre-defined (distance covered in 5-minutes at every 5-minute time point) or rolling time periods (distance covered in 5 minutes from every time point).…”

Effect of formation, ball in play and ball possession on peak demands in elite soccer

“…Recently attention has been focused on the most demanding passages of match play (MDP) over different lengths of time (e.g. 1 to 10 min) [ 15 – 17 ]. During the training process, the relative whole-match running distances fail to fully account for the worst-case scenario that occurs during official matches [ 14 ] and it may be responsible for underpreparing players for the MDP [ 16 , 18 ].…”