A comparison of approaches used for economic analysis in marine protected area network planning in California

White, J. Wilson; Scholz, Astrid; Rassweiler, Andrew; Steinback, Charles; Botsford, Louis W.; Kruse, Sarah A.; Costello, Christopher; Mitarai, Satoshi; Siegel, David A.; Drake, Patrick T.; Edwards, Christopher A.

doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.06.006

Cited by 54 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…There have been efforts towards handling this shortage by developing decision theory in the absence of perfect empirical information (Halpern et al 2006, Bottrill et al 2008, White et al 2010b, and developing approaches for designing MPAs based on representative areas that capture community-and ecosystem-level characteristics (Leslie et al 2003, Fernandes et al 2005) without considering whether populations will persist. The current state of the art in persistence-based MPA design is to use spatially explicit population models with connectivity estimates drawn from biophysical circulation simulations (White et al 2013). In the meantime, the tools and data needed to obtain direct empirical estimates of larval connectivity to ''ground-truth'' the biophysical models, or to use in locations where circulation models are not available, are increasingly within reach.…”

Section: A Way Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond connectivity: how empirical methods can quantify population persistence to improve marine protected‐area design

Burgess

Nickols

Griesemer

et al. 2014

Ecological Applications

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Abstract. Demographic connectivity is a fundamental process influencing the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations. Consequently, quantifying connectivity is essential for properly designing networks of protected areas so that they achieve their core ecological objective of maintaining population persistence. Recently, many empirical studies in marine systems have provided essential, and historically challenging to obtain, data on patterns of larval dispersal and export from marine protected areas (MPAs). Here, we review the empirical studies that have directly quantified the origins and destinations of individual larvae and assess those studies' relevance to the theory of population persistence and MPA design objectives. We found that empirical studies often do not measure or present quantities that are relevant to assessing population persistence, even though most studies were motivated or contextualized by MPA applications. Persistence of spatial populations, like nonspatial populations, depends on replacement, whether individuals reproduce enough in their lifetime to replace themselves. In spatial populations, one needs to account for the effect of larval dispersal on future recruitment back to the local population through local retention and other connectivity pathways. The most commonly reported descriptor of larval dispersal was the fraction of recruitment from local origin (self-recruitment). Self-recruitment does not inform persistence-based MPA design because it is a fraction of those arriving, not a fraction of those leaving (local retention), so contains no information on replacement. Some studies presented connectivity matrices, which can inform assessments of persistence with additional knowledge of survival and fecundity after recruitment. Some studies collected data in addition to larval dispersal that could inform assessments of population persistence but which were not presented in that way. We describe how three pieces of empirical information are needed to fully describe population persistence in a network of MPAs: (1) lifetime fecundity, (2) the proportion of larvae that are locally retained (or the full connectivity matrix), and (3) survival rate after recruitment. We conclude by linking theory and data to provide detailed guidance to empiricists and practitioners on field sampling design and data presentation that better informs the MPA objective of population persistence.

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Section: A Way Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond connectivity: how empirical methods can quantify population persistence to improve marine protected‐area design

Burgess

Nickols

Griesemer

et al. 2014

Ecological Applications

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202

297

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“…Here, we assess the likely outcome of MSP for a case study involving the placement of no-take marine-protected areas (MPAs). This example is based on the Marine Life Protection Act process undertaken in southern California between 2008 and 2010 [13]. In that process, a network of MPAs were established in near-shore waters, with varying degrees of protection, including no-take marine reserves.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating scientific guidance into marine spatial planning

et al. 2014

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Marine spatial planning (MSP), whereby areas of the ocean are zoned for different uses, has great potential to reduce or eliminate conflicts between competing management goals, but only if strategically applied. The recent literature overwhelmingly agrees that including stakeholders in these planning processes is critical to success; but, given the countless alternative ways even simple spatial regulations can be configured, how likely is it that a stakeholder-driven process will generate plans that deliver on the promise of MSP? Here, we use a spatially explicit, dynamic bioeconomic model to show that stakeholder-generated plans are doomed to fail in the absence of strong scientific guidance. While strategically placed spatial regulations can improve outcomes remarkably, the vast majority of possible plans fail to achieve this potential. Surprisingly, existing scientific rules of thumb do little to improve outcomes. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which models are used to identify efficient plans, which are then modified by stakeholders. Even if stakeholders alter these initial proposals considerably, results hugely outperform plans guided by scientific rules of thumb. Our results underscore the importance of spatially explicit dynamic models for the management of marine resources and illustrate how such models can be harmoniously integrated into a stakeholder-driven MSP process.

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“…Cowen et al (2000) demonstrated the importance of using accurate mortality rates in Lagrangian simulations of larval dispersal using ocean circulation models: higher mortality rates drastically decrease connectivity rates among habitat patches. Those model-derived connectivity probabilities are used to elucidate patterns of gene flow and vicariance (e.g., Baums et al 2006) and population and community dynamics (e.g., Berkley et al 2010, White et al 2010, and they are increasingly used to inform the design and analysis of marine protected areas (e.g., Rassweiler et al 2012, White et al 2013. To date, larval mortality remains a huge uncertainty in those models (Pineda et al 2009), and modelers typically rely on the original estimates of mortality from Rumrill (1990) for parameterization (Vaughn and Allen 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

Planktonic larval mortality rates are lower than widely expected

White

Morgan

Fisher

2014

Ecology

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TitlePlanktonic larval mortality rates are lower than widely expected Abstract. Fundamental knowledge of mortality during the planktonic phase of the typical marine life cycle is essential to understanding population dynamics and managing marine resources. However, estimating larval mortality is extremely challenging, because the fate of microscopic larvae cannot be tracked as they develop for weeks in ocean currents. We used a two-pronged approach to provide reliable estimates of larval mortality: (1) frequent, long-term sampling where the combination of larval behaviors and recirculation greatly reduces larval transport to and from the study area, and (2) an improved method of calculating larval mortality that consists of a vertical life table with a negative binomial distribution to account for the notorious patchiness of plankton. Larval mortality rates of our study species (barnacles and crabs) were 0.14 larvae/d, which produce survivorships over an order of magnitude higher than commonly determined for marine larvae. These estimates are reliable because they were similar for species with similar dispersal patterns. They are conservative because they were conducted in a highly advective upwelling system, and they may be even lower in other systems using our approach. Until other systems can be tested, our improved estimates should be used to inform future models of population dynamics and the evolution of life histories in the sea.

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A comparison of approaches used for economic analysis in marine protected area network planning in California

Cited by 54 publications

References 70 publications

Beyond connectivity: how empirical methods can quantify population persistence to improve marine protected‐area design

Beyond connectivity: how empirical methods can quantify population persistence to improve marine protected‐area design

Integrating scientific guidance into marine spatial planning

Planktonic larval mortality rates are lower than widely expected

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