A comparison of 2D storm surge models applied to three shallow European seas

Devries, H.; Breton, Michael Le; Demulder, T.; Krestenitis, Yannis Ν.; Ozer, J.; Proctor, Roger; Ruddick, Kevin; Salomon, Jc.; Voorrips, A. C.

doi:10.1016/0266-9838(95)00003-4

Cited by 70 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Skew surge is the difference between the elevation of the predicted astronomical high tide and the maximum high water observed during the same tidal cycle (e.g. de Vries et al, 1995). Skew surge is considered a more significant and practical measure than surge residual (the difference between the predicted astronomical tide and the observed water level at any time during a tidal cycle).…”

Section: Description Of Surge Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

et al. 2016

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Abstract.Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ∼ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean -NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (∼ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ∼ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

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Section: Description Of Surge Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

et al. 2016

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“…Since the (residual) surge is less extreme during high water (Fig. 6) the 'skew surge' becomes more important in flood risk management, since it gives an idea of how accurately the absolute water level above tidal high water is forecast (de Vries et al, 1995). Skew surge is the difference between the peaks in total water level and the nearest astronomical high tide level.…”

Section: Model Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The absolute error in the peak (residual) surge is considered the best measure of the effect of the wind-stress through time, thus we use the PEF-residual to determine which model set up is most accurate at surge prediction. This quantity is a measure of the model performance at low water and ignores any errors due to phase differences, which is considered unimportant operationally (de Vries et al, 1995).…”

Section: Model Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled wave and surge modelling for the eastern Irish Sea and implications for model wind-stress

Brown

Wolf

2009

Continental Shelf Research

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We revisit the surge of November 1977, a storm event which caused damage on the Sefton coast in NW England. A hindcast has been made with a coupled surge-tidewave model, to investigate the effects of waves on the surge generation by modifying the surface drag. The POLCOMS-WAM modelling system has been used to model combined tides, surges, waves and wave-current interaction in the Irish Sea on a 1.85km grid. This period has been previously thoroughly studied e.g. Jones and Davies (1998) and has been chosen here to validate the POLCOMS-WAM model to test the accuracy of surge elevation predictions in the study area. A one-way nested approach has been set up. It was demonstrated that (as expected) swell from the North Atlantic does not have a significant impact in the eastern Irish Sea. To capture the external surge generated outside of the Irish Sea a (1/9º by 1/6º) model extending beyond the continental shelf edge was run using the POLCOMS model for tide and surge.The model results were compared with tide gauge observations around the eastern Irish Sea. The model was tested with different wind-stress formulations including Smith and Banke (1975) and Charnock (1955). It has been demonstrated that Smith and Banke can be well-approximated by a constant Charnock parameter, but this varies with location. In order to get a single parameterisation that works with wavecoupling the wave-derived surface roughness length has been imposed in the surge model. One of the largest surge events that occurred at Liverpool in the last 10 years, in January 2007, has also been simulated to validate this model set up to demonstrate its robust application in the Liverpool Bay area.

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“…Two events have a surge component with positive skewness, and two with negative skewness. The skewness value of the filtered surge component as defined in this manuscript (asymmetry of the shape of the surge curve) must not be confused with a 'skew surge' (the difference between the maximum observed water level and the maximum predicted tidal level, regardless of timing (de Vries et al 1995)). …”

Section: Surge Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

Lyddon

Brown

Leonardi

et al. 2018

Estuaries and Coasts

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Astronomical high tides and meteorological storm surges present a combined flood hazard to communities and infrastructure. There is a need to incorporate the impact of tide-surge interaction and the spatial and temporal variability of the combined flood hazard in flood risk assessments, especially in hyper-tidal estuaries where the consequences of tide and storm surge concurrence can be catastrophic. Delft3D-FLOW is used to assess up-estuary variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England as an example. The influence of the following on flood hazard is investigated: (i) event severity, (ii) timing of the peak of a storm surge relative to tidal high water and (iii) the temporal distribution of the storm surge component (here in termed the surge skewness). Results show when modelling a local area event severity is most important control on flood hazard. Tide-surge concurrence increases flood hazard throughout the estuary. Positive surge skewness can result in a greater variability of extreme water levels and residual surge component, the effects of which are magnified up-estuary by estuarine geometry to exacerbate flood hazard. The concepts and methodology shown here can be applied to other estuaries worldwide.

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A comparison of 2D storm surge models applied to three shallow European seas

Cited by 70 publications

References 8 publications

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Coupled wave and surge modelling for the eastern Irish Sea and implications for model wind-stress

Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

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