A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

Abstract

Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv) increase the transparency of model structure, assumptions and techniques, (v) achieve a greater Handling editor: Boping Han understanding of aquatic ecosystem functioning, (vi) increase the reliability of predictions by aquatic ecosystem models, (vii) stimulate model inter-comparisons including differing model approaches, and (viii) avoid 're-inventing the wheel', thus accelerating improvements to aquatic ecosystem models. We intend to achieve this as a community that fosters interactions amongst ecologists and model developers. Further, we outline scientific topics recently articulated by the scientific community, which lend themselves well to being addressed by integrative modelling approaches and serve to motivate the progress and implementation of an open source model framework.

The past and future of phytoplankton in the UK's largest lake, Lough Neagh

“…It has been applied in over 35 peer reviewed studies and is one of the most cited lake models in the world (Trolle et al, 2012).…”

Environmental Impacts—Lake Ecosystems

“…However, these UK experiments were all of short duration (less than one year) and may only have described the transient state after warming, which may lead to overestimation of the net release of carbon. Long-term mesocosm experiments will provide more reliable indications about the net effect of warming on ecosystem metabolism (Jeppesen et al 2010a;Liboriussen et al 2011), complemented by long-term research and modelling of whole lake ecosystems (Trolle et al 2012). …”

“…In attempting to account for these complex interactions, mechanistic numerical models continue to play a greater role in hypothesis testing (system understanding) and for predicting the future state of ecosystems given the projections of future climatic forcing according to climate models (Trolle et al 2012). Thus, the ability to link-and equally importantly to quantify-complex interactions Trolle, original) between physical, chemical and biological processes makes models one of the most important tools of modern science, and for the past decade, models have been used extensively, aiming to establish the potential effects of future climate on freshwater ecosystems (Mooij et al 2007;Trolle et al 2011;Elliott 2012).…”

Causal analysis of phytoplankton development in a small humic lake using structural equation modelling

“…The many process-based biogeochemical models including phytoplankton are deterministic (see Trolle et al 2012), although numerous others with varying complexity exist. Besides being able to represent the internal dynamics and function of the system, other advantages of deterministic modelling is the possibility for quantitative simulations and, with caution, making predictions beyond the historical variability of the system (Robson et al 2008).…”

“…the research and model development done on Lake Constance) to gain a robust scientific basis for complicated modelling studies of boreal aquatic ecosystems. Monitoring the factors most connected to the features of boreal lakes will be challenging per se; thus it would be advisable to test the existing lake models as a basis for phytoplankton modelling in Finland and, if possible, add the 'boreal compartments' into those rather than develop completely new models (this approach in general is discussed by Trolle et al 2012).…”