The past and future of phytoplankton in the UK's largest lake, Lough Neagh

Elliott, J. Alex; McElarney, Y.; Allen, M.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.07.015

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…However, in Rostherne Mere at the highest temperature, corresponding to the 2100 time period, chl-a concentrations were forecast to be lower than those in 2060. This reduction in chl-a with continued warming is counter to other modelling studies simulating warming, that reported a step change increase with higher warming scenarios in similar deep, stratifying eutrophic lakes (Elliott et al, 2016;Tadonleke, 2010). Although the mechanism linking chl-a change and temperature change is unclear, we suggest that the response at Rostherne Mere is based on the indirect impact on nutrient cycling caused by altered stratification and its effect on the hydrology of the lake, leading to a changing species dominance that produces a variation in chl-a (discussed below).…”

Section: The Effect Of Climatic Warming On the Concentration Of Chl-acontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…Rising air temperatures to 2060 resulted in a slight increase in chl-a concentration, under current nutrient loads and a smaller increase in lower nutrient scenarios. Some studies have found that temperature increase has no effect on chl-a, only increasing the cyanobacterial dominance (Kosten et al, 2012), whereas others found an increase in chl-a, but the mechanistic reason is unknown (Elliott, McElarney, & Allen, 2016;Izmest'eva et al, 2016). However, in Rostherne Mere at the highest temperature, corresponding to the 2100 time period, chl-a concentrations were forecast to be lower than those in 2060.…”

Section: The Effect Of Climatic Warming On the Concentration Of Chl-amentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Some studies have found that temperature increase has no effect on chl-a, only increasing the cyanobacterial dominance (Kosten et al, 2012), whereas others found an increase in chl-a, but the mechanistic reason is unknown (Elliott, McElarney, & Allen, 2016;Izmest'eva et al, 2016). Some studies have found that temperature increase has no effect on chl-a, only increasing the cyanobacterial dominance (Kosten et al, 2012), whereas others found an increase in chl-a, but the mechanistic reason is unknown (Elliott, McElarney, & Allen, 2016;Izmest'eva et al, 2016).…”

Section: The Effect Of Climatic Warming On the Concentration Of Chl-amentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impacts of changing nutrient load and climate on a deep, eutrophic, monomictic lake

et al. 2019

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Nutrient availability and climate have substantial effects on the structure and function of lakes. Predicted changes to climate (particularly temperature) over the 21st century are expected to adjust physical lake functions, changing thermal and nutrient use processes. Both increasing anthropogenic nutrient inputs and net reductions following remediation will also drive ecological change. Therefore, there is an increasing necessity to disentangle the effects of nutrient and temperature change on lakes to understand how they might act in additive and antagonistic ways. This study quantified internal and external nutrient loads at Rostherne Mere, U.K., a deep (zmax = 30 m), monomictic eutrophic lake (average annual total phosphorus >100 μg/L) that has a long, stable period of stratification (c. 8.5 months). A lake biophysical model (PROTECH) was used to assess the effect of changes in these loads and climate change on lake productivity in a factorial modelling experiment. During the summer, phosphorus released from the sediment is largely restricted to the hypolimnion and phytoplankton production is supported by the external load. On overturn, phosphorus at depth is distributed throughout the water column with the elevated concentration persisting to support algal productivity in the following spring. Consequently, the model showed that internal nutrient loading was the main driver of current and future changes in the concentration of phosphorus (responsible for up to 86% P reduction), phytoplankton chlorophyll a and cyanobacterial blooms. However, although the external phosphorus load had a relatively small influence on annual mean phosphorus concentration, it had a statistically significant effect on chlorophyll a concentration, because it supported algal production during summer stratification. Climate had minimal direct impact, but a substantial indirect impact by altering the timing, depth and length of lake stratification (c. 14 days longer by 2100), and therefore altered nutrient cycling and phosphorus availability. In summary, the recovery trajectory at Rostherne Mere is limited by the annual internal soluble reactive phosphorus load replenishment that realistically is unlikely to change greatly on a shorter time‐scale. Therefore, the external soluble reactive phosphorus load has the potential to play an important role as it can be managed further, but is complicated by the indirect impact of climate changing stratification and flushing patterns.

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Section: The Effect Of Climatic Warming On the Concentration Of Chl-acontrasting

confidence: 99%

Section: The Effect Of Climatic Warming On the Concentration Of Chl-amentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: The Effect Of Climatic Warming On the Concentration Of Chl-amentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impacts of changing nutrient load and climate on a deep, eutrophic, monomictic lake

et al. 2019

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“…Pre-2010, PROTECH had mainly been applied to relatively small lakes with the exception of Lake Erken, Sweden (24 km 2 ; Elliott et al, 2007). However, since then it has been applied to the UK's largest lake, Lough Neagh (383 km 2 ; Elliott et al, 2016), Pyhäjärvi in Finland (154 km 2 ; Pätynen et al, 2014) and Lake Simcoe, Canada (2899 km 2 ; Crossman & Elliott, 2018;Crossman et al, 2019). Given the model's 1D nature, these studies were a new challenge and for the first two studies, yet PROTECH performed satisfactory with only one modification regarding sediment nutrient release, which is discussed below.…”

Section: Applying Protech To Large Lakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling lake phytoplankton communities: recent applications of the PROTECH model

Elliott

2020

Hydrobiologia

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“…To date, most lake modeling studies have either applied a constant degree of warming in 49 their temperature scenarios (e.g., a uniform -1 to +4 added every day to the model driver data; 50 e.g., Elliott, 2010;Elliott et al, 2016) or derived warming projections from a suite of climate 51 models (Bruce et al, 2018;Elliott et al, 2006;Li et al, 2016), though neither of these 52 approaches accounts for day-to-day variability in air temperatures . While some lake modeling 53 studies have used multiple temperature scenarios, most have not incorporated within-scenario 54 variability (e.g., Butcher et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introduction 36mentioning

confidence: 99%

Including variability in air temperature warming scenarios in a lake simulation model highlights uncertainty in predictions of cyanobacteria

Krinos

Farrell

Daneshmand

et al. 2019

Preprint

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15Despite growing evidence that climate change will increase temperature variability and 16 the frequency of temperature extremes, many modeling studies that analyze the effects of 17 warming scenarios on cyanobacteria in lakes examine uniform warming temperature scenarios 18 without including any variability. Here, we used the one-dimensional hydrodynamic General 19 Lake Model coupled to Aquatic EcoDynamics modules (GLM-AED) to simulate 11 years of 20 nitrogen-fixing and non-nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterial biomass in Lake Mendota (Madison, WI, 21 USA). We developed climate scenarios with either uniform (constant) warming or variable 22 warming based on random sampling of daily air temperatures from either a normal or Poisson 23 33 Keywords: climate change; blooms; phytoplankton; GLM; Mendota; probability distributions 34 35 2008; Visser et al., 2016). Cyanobacteria have higher thermal optima than eukaryotic 70 phytoplankton (up to 35°C for most taxa; Reynolds 2006), so higher temperature variability 71could increase the incidence of very warm days on which the optimum temperature for 72 cyanobacteria occurs in the lake (Konopka and Brock, 1978;Visser et al., 2016; Walls et al., 73 2018;Walter Helbling et al., 2015). However, like most lake modeling studies, most work to 74 date studying the effects of warming on phytoplankton has focused on changes to mean 75 temperatures, not temperature variability (e.g., De Stasio et al., 1996; Mooij et al., 2005; Striebel 76 et al., 2016;Thomas and Litchman, 2015), despite evidence that variability in water temperatures 77 can alter phytoplankton (Edlund et al., 2017;Havens et al., 2016;Sahoo et al., 2016; Saros et al., 78 2016; Merchant, 2017, 2018). 79Here, we used a lake ecosystem simulation model to answer the question, How does 80 increased mean temperature and daily temperature variability affect the biomass of lake 81 cyanobacteria? We calibrated a one-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality model to simulate 82 two phytoplankton functional groups that represent the physiological and ecological traits of 83 nitrogen-fixing (N-fixing) and non-nitrogen-fixing (non-N-fixing) cyanobacteria, and quantified 84 the effects of warming and more variable air temperatures on phytoplankton community 85 dynamics. We developed scenarios of variable air temperature forcing by randomly sampling 86 from different distributions of air temperature increases on each day of the simulation. We 87 expected that including air temperature variability would result in an increased incidence of 88 cyanobacterial blooms, because especially warm days might trigger cyanobacterial blooms. We 89 also expected that the results would vary substantially among the multiple years in a simulation 90 due to background variability in other meteorological drivers (e.g., precipitation), which were not 91 modified in the air temperature scenarios. 92Potential effects of global climate change on small north-temperate lakes: Physics, fish, and 595

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The past and future of phytoplankton in the UK's largest lake, Lough Neagh

Cited by 13 publications

References 24 publications

The impacts of changing nutrient load and climate on a deep, eutrophic, monomictic lake

The impacts of changing nutrient load and climate on a deep, eutrophic, monomictic lake

Modelling lake phytoplankton communities: recent applications of the PROTECH model

Including variability in air temperature warming scenarios in a lake simulation model highlights uncertainty in predictions of cyanobacteria

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