A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States

A Cointegration Analysis of Air Travel Demand: The Case of International Air Travel Demand Between Morocco and European Union

“…In fact, prior to 1990s, traditional regression approaches were used extensively in the literature for modeling tourism demand and as a tool for identifying potentially explanatory factors of air travel demand. In the mid 90s', the situation has changed, several studies have started to use more sophisticated modern techniques, such as vector autoregressive modeling (VAR), co-integration and error correction approach (Baker et al, 2015;Chi, 2014;Kulendran and Wilson, 2000;Halicioglu, 2004). Nevertheless, the quality of empirical results based on the traditional models is questionable for two reasons.…”

“…For example, Chi (2014) found that GDP, the bilateral exchange rate and the 9/11 attacks are the main variables explaining the bilateral air travel between the US and its main partners. He used the co-integration approach for assessing short and long-run impacts between the demand for air travel, GDP, the exchange rate and a dummy variable that represents the effect of the 9/11 attacks.…”

“…A n analysis of various models, whose objective is to study and evaluate the impact of social and economic factors on the air travel demand (Chi, 2014;Abed et al, 2001;AL-Rukaibi and Al-Mutairi, 2013;Button, 2009), and with the regard to the Moroccan reality 3 , showed that the air travel demand in Morocco seems to depend on variables ref lecting the wealth level of passengers (Schafer and David, 2000) and travel cost, for 3 The first reality is that the most air passengers in Morocco are foreign tourists, a 95% share of total passengers (ONMT, 2012), from which a substantial proportion represents the MLA. This is due to the fact that MLA are residents abroad, and when they come to spend their holidays in Morocco, they are considered as tourists.…”

“…The air traffic analysis has been the focus of a large number of studies that have tried to identify the determinants of the air travel demand 2 (Chi, 2014;Abed et al, 2001;Kulendran and Wilson, 2000;Jorge-Calderón, 1997). By analyzing the literature on air transportation, (Ginieis et al, 2012) found that the number of papers on air transportation in social science has increased; in 2001, there were approximately 70 publications.…”

“…The method we will use in this work is developed into the framework of co-integration and error correction models approach. This method has been used extensively in several recent works that aim at identifying the determinant factors of air travel demand, both in the short and long-run, we mention, among others, (Chi, 2014;Baker et al, 2015;Van De Vijver et al, 2014).…”