A Century of U.S. Farm Productivity Growth: A Surge Then a Slowdown

Abstract

U.S. farm productivity growth has direct consequences for sustainably feeding the world's still rapidly growing population, as well as U.S. competitiveness in international markets. Using a newly expanded compilation of multifactor productivity (MFP) estimates and associated partial‐factor productivity (PFP) measures, we examine changes in the pattern of U.S. agricultural productivity growth over the past century and more. Considering the evidence as a whole, we detect sizable and significant slowdowns in the rate of productivity growth in recent decades. U.S. multifactor productivity grew at an annual average rate of just 1.16% per year during 1990–2007 compared with 1.42% per year for the period 1910–2007. U.S. yields of major crops grew at an annual average rate of 1.17% per year for 1990–2009 compared with 1.81% per year for 1936–1990. More subtly, but with potentially profound implications, the relatively high rates of MFP growth during the third quarter of the century are an historical aberration relative to the long‐run trend.

Endogenous dynamic efficiency in the intertemporal optimization models of firm behavior

“…Interestingly, our posterior mean estimates of productivity growth in the farm production from Model I are notably greater than those reported earlier by Ball et al (1997) and more recently by Andersen, Alston, Pardey & Smith (2018) and Plastina & Lence (2018). This may be plausibly attributed to distinct differences in the productivity measurement methodologies.…”

Theoretical Production Restrictions and Agricultural Technology in the United States

“…twentieth century an anomaly in a sector characterized by slow productivity growth. Ball, Schimmelpfennig, and Wang (2013), Alston (2018), and Andersen et al (2018) provide comprehensive discussions about the competing hypotheses behind the slowdown in U.S. agricultural productivity.…”

Crop research, biotech canola, and innovation policy in Canada: Challenges, opportunities, and evolution

“…As well, the World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer also concluded that the presence of glyphosate in drinking water does not represent a hazard to human health (WHO, 2017). 4 There is mixed and sometimes competing evidence regarding agricultural productivity growth in the world, with the predominant result that agricultural productivity growth has slowed, especially in the world's richest countries (for details see, Andersen, Alston, Pardey, & Smith, 2018;Darku, Malla, & Tran, 2016). (especially with the Tobin and Westar varieties).…”

“…The global population is expected to increase significantly in the next few decades. At the same time, global agricultural productivity growth has slowed down, especially in the world's richest countries (Andersen, Alston, Pardey, & Smith, ). This trend has been mainly attributed to underinvestment in certain types of productivity enhancing agricultural R&D (Alston, Beddow, & Pardey, ; Alston, James, Andersen, & Pardey, ).…”

“…There is mixed and sometimes competing evidence regarding agricultural productivity growth in the world, with the predominant result that agricultural productivity growth has slowed, especially in the world's richest countries (for details see, Andersen, Alston, Pardey, & Smith, ; Darku, Malla, & Tran, ).…”