A centennial catalogue of hydro-geomorphological events and their atmospheric forcing

Pereira, Susana; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Rebelo, Luís; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Zêzere, José Luı́s

doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.10.001

Cited by 20 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(93 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…To facilitate the interpretation of the resulting daily CWTs, we separate them into the respective pure directional (from north: N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, and NW) and cyclonic/anticyclonic (C/A) types, thus resulting in a total of 10 CWTs, using the same method as in Ramos et al (2014). Furthermore, the directional types are grouped according to similar coherent precipitation responses (Ramos et al 2014;Pereira et al 2018). Thus, the following subset of grouped CWTs is considered: 1) cyclonic (C), 2) anticyclonic (A), 3) wet zonal types (NW1W1SW), 4) cold types (N1NE), and 5) warm types (S1SE1E).…”

Section: E Circulation Weather Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Variability in ARs characterized by the IVT has been analyzed in western Europe (e.g., Sodemann and Stohl 2013;Villarini 2015, 2013;Ramos et al 2015), western North America (e.g., Ralph and Dettinger 2011;Brands et al 2017;Hecht and Cordeira 2017;Oakley et al 2018), South Africa (e.g., Blamey et al 2018;Ramos et al 2018), and Chile (Viale et al 2018), among other regions. In fact, important historical flooding events can be attributed to ARs over western Europe (e.g., Lavers et al 2011;Lavers and Villarini 2013;Pereira et al 2018). Likewise, severe water shortages are associated with an anomalous and persistent decrease of IVT toward these western coastal areas (Dettinger 2013;Flint et al 2018;Sousa et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

North Atlantic Integrated Water Vapor Transport—From 850 to 2100 CE: Impacts on Western European Rainfall

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Moisture transport over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean is an important process governing precipitation distribution and variability over western Europe. To assess its long-term variability, the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) from a long-term climate simulation spanning the period 850–2100 CE was used. Results show a steady increase in moisture transport toward western Europe since the late-nineteenth century that is projected to expand during the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario. The projected IVT for 2070–99 significantly exceeds the range given by interannual–interdecadal variability of the last millennium. Changes in IVT are in line with significant increases in tropospheric moisture content, driven by the concurrent rise in surface temperatures associated with the anthropogenic climate trend. On regional scales, recent and projected precipitation changes over the British Isles follow the global positive IVT trend, whereas a robust precipitation decrease over Iberia is identified in the twenty-first century, particularly during autumn. This indicates a possible extension of stable and dry summer conditions and a decoupling between moisture availability and dynamical forcing. The investigation of circulation features reveals a mean poleward shift of moisture corridors and associated atmospheric rivers. In particular, in Iberia, a significant increase in the frequency of dry weather types is observed, accompanied by a decrease in the frequency of wet types. An opposite response is observed over the British Isles. These changes imply a stronger meridional north–south dipole in terms of pressure and precipitation distributions, enhancing the transport toward central Europe rather than to Iberia.

show abstract

Section: E Circulation Weather Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

North Atlantic Integrated Water Vapor Transport—From 850 to 2100 CE: Impacts on Western European Rainfall

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Within extratropical cyclones, concurrent wind and precipitation are likely to occur along with frontal structures (Catto and Pfahl, 2013;Schemm et al, 2016) and their intensity scales with the frontal strength (Schemm et al, 2017;Raveh-Rubin and Catto, 2019). For the Iberian Peninsula (IP), extreme windstorms and extreme precipitation are among the costliest natural hazards (Lorente et al, 2008;Liberato and Trigo, 2014;Pereira et al, 2018). This topic has become of great interest to the general public, stakeholders, and reinsurance companies, which deal with increasing rebuilding costs and due compensations, in the framework of increasing risk under climate change (Aon-Benfield, 2018;Munich, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind events for the Iberian Peninsula

Hénin

Ramos

Pinto

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Iberian Peninsula (IP) is often affected by extreme precipitation and severe winds that are mostly associated with extratropical cyclones and their atmospheric fronts. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to revise and update two existing rankings of extreme precipitation and extreme potential wind‐loss days for the extended winter months on the IP. A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind extreme events is produced by matching the two individual rankings for the IP and for specific IP subregions, including its main river basins. The intensity and the variability at the interannual and decadal scale are evaluated for precipitation, wind and concurrent precipitation and wind events. A systematic analysis of the underlying synoptic conditions is pursued for the top100 most extreme concurrent events including (a) cyclones' trajectories, (b) the presence of an Atmospheric River (AR), (c) recurrent patterns in the locations affected by precipitation and wind extremes and (d) possible long‐term trends. Results show that 85% of concurrent precipitation and wind extreme events are clearly associated with a cyclonic feature and most of these cyclones either cross the IP or pass to the northwest. Concurrent events are more likely occurring in the northwestern sectors of the IP on wintertime as in recent decades a downward trend for the events' frequency is observed in autumn. ARs are more likely associated with the strongest events occurring on the western sector of IP. Accordingly, the areas that mostly experience concurrent precipitation and wind extremes related to those systems are located in the northwestern sector of the peninsula.

show abstract

“…The precipitation and meteorological conditions associated with landslides occurrence in Portugal, especially in the Lisbon region, have been studied in the past (e.g., Zêzere et al, 2005;Zêzere et al, 2015;Pereira et al, 2018). It was shown by Zêzere et al (2005), that the precipitation, North Atlantic Oscillation and landslide occurrence in the Lisbon region were associated 255 through a 3-month moving average computed to both the NAO index and the monthly rainfall anomalies.…”

Section: Association Between Landslides and Clustering Of Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent studies also show that over western Iberian Peninsula extreme precipitation is often associated with the landfall of Atmospheric Rivers (Ramos et al, 2014;Trigo et al, 2014;Eiras-Barca et al, 2016 2018) analyzed a centennial catalogue of hydro-geomorphological events (including floods and landslides) and their atmospheric forcing and also concluded that the westerly flow and the cyclonic types are mainly associated with these hydro-geomorphological events. In addition, regarding the 130 events analyzed by Pereira et al (2018), it was shown that around 45% were somehow associated with the passage of an Atmospheric River. For comparison purposes, for the trigger days of the landslides (62 days) analyzed in this paper, we have extracted the circulation weather types from the same database that was used by Pereira et al (2018).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides

Banfi,

Bevacqua,

Rivoire

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Landslides are complex phenomena that cause important impacts in vulnerable areas, including the destruction of infrastructure, environmental damage, and loss of life. The occurrence of landslide events is often triggered by rainfall episodes, single and intense ones or multiple occurring in sequence, i.e. clustered in time. Landslide prediction is typically obtained via process-based or empirical thresholds. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds. In addition, we evaluate the performances of the two approaches combined together as a case study in the region of Lisbon in Portugal. We consider a dataset that categorises landslides into shallow and deep events, and a review of empirical rainfall thresholds that makes a good benchmark for testing our novel method. We show that the new approach based on temporal clustering overall has a good power of detecting landslide events, but has a skill comparable with the classic rainfall threshold method. While there is no clear outperformance of one method, the novel clustering-based method has a higher sensitivity despite a lower precision than the threshold-based method. For all approaches, the potential detection is better for deep landslides than for shallow ones. The results of this study could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.

show abstract

A centennial catalogue of hydro-geomorphological events and their atmospheric forcing

Cited by 20 publications

References 60 publications

North Atlantic Integrated Water Vapor Transport—From 850 to 2100 CE: Impacts on Western European Rainfall

North Atlantic Integrated Water Vapor Transport—From 850 to 2100 CE: Impacts on Western European Rainfall

A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind events for the Iberian Peninsula

Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About